Hitting Them Where It Hurts: Windows Consumer Growth Rate Outperforms Macs

Todd Bishop has a great story about Windows PCs blowing away the Mac in the consumer market. But the bigger deal here is that he hits on an important point that many people regularly miss: While Apple always puts up huge growth numbers for the Mac, it's easy to do that when your market share is tiny. But it's almost impossible to do so when your market share is huge. So how did Windows outperform the Mac so handily this past quarter? I'm sure the Apple apologists will have their theories or, more likely, simply try to change the discussion ("Look! It's the iPhone!"). But the truth is that consumers buy PCs, not Macs. And that's as true in the US as it is elsewhere in the world.

Buried in Microsoft's earnings report today is an interesting statistic that suggests the company's new Windows 7 operating system may be having some success in beating back Apple in the critical consumer market.

In the financial data accompanying its earnings release, Microsoft said worldwide Windows consumer licenses grew by more than 35 percent in the recent quarter. By comparison, Apple this week reported an increase of 33 percent in Mac sales over roughly the same time period. That was impressive, too, of course, but Microsoft is growing from a significantly larger base of sales to begin with, making its higher growth rate considerably harder to achieve.

"Of course we're going to outsell them on a unit basis, but on a rate basis, on a market share basis, we actually outgrew Apple Mac in the third quarter worldwide," said Brad Brooks, a Microsoft Windows corporate vice president, referring to the quarter in the context of the Redmond company's fiscal year, ending in June.

Discussing the PC market-share numbers, Microsoft's Brooks acknowledged that some skeptics might point to the fact that Microsoft is active in fast-growing, developing nations where Apple doesn't have a presence. But he cited a recent IDC report showing Apple's market share declining in the U.S. in the first quarter, calling that consistent with Microsoft's internal numbers.

"We definitely took share," he said.

Good stuff.

Discuss this Article 26

Ocean
on Apr 23, 2010

Somehow, I suspect that Apple is very, very pleased with the previous quarter, the facts in this article notwithstanding.

chipwinter
on Apr 23, 2010

This is good news for Microsoft, as it needs Windows (and Office) for nearly all of its revenue needs.

I'm not sure this hurts Apple much though, as it no longer relies on Mac sales for its growth. In fact Mac sales make up less than 1/3 of Apple's revenue.

Ocean
on Apr 23, 2010

A key paragraph that Todd made in the comments:

Q:The article appears to compare the sales of Windows 7, an OS, against the sales of new Macs, whole computers that include an OS.

A:  Apple does report the growth of the Mac market based on hardware sales. Separate sales of Mac OS X aren't broken out from the "software, services and other sales" line of its financial statements.

Ocean
on Apr 23, 2010

And another comment:

"many OS sales are upgrades from older versions of Windows, meaning that the total number of Windows computers is not growing nearly as fast as the rate of Windows 7 copies sold. "

Ocean
on Apr 23, 2010

" A study released March 29 by the Forrester Research firm found that about 43 percent of people who moved to Windows 7 in the fourth quarter of last year did so on their existing machines — almost as many who upgraded by buying new computers, which is normally the much more common practice among consumers."

www.techflash.com/.../microsoft_turns_windows_around_but_rest_of_industry_moves_on.html

pthurrott
on Apr 23, 2010
Thanks Ocean. I knew I could count on you to give it the old college try. :)
Ocean
on Apr 23, 2010

I'm interested in your response...not so much the playful sarcasm.  :)

RunTimeError
on Apr 23, 2010

While not trying to change the subject, or be a jerk, the fact remains that Apple is a single company whose cheapest computer is a thousand bucks.

They got outsold by many PC companies who sell computers that start at a few hundred dollars. And Windows comes on each and every one of those computers.

So it's not really hard to see why the PC market outsold the Mac market at all.

And yes, Windows 7 is the reason in the upswing of OS sales for Microsoft. Companies are finally moving away from XP now that the turd called Vista is pretty much a bad memory.

Two years ago only only one out of the pile of companies I deal with on a daily basis moved  from XP to Vista. The rest wouldn't touch Vista with a thirty nine and a half foot pole.

Today, those that are not using Windows 7 now will be by the summer.

EricoF3
on Apr 23, 2010

Haaa!! Paul ... You're right!!!!!!!!!!!!!

By example : if your market share is 2 Mac and you sell 3 Mac this quarter it means you grow your market share of 33.3% ... It seems huge growth but in fact is tiny, it is jet one more Mac sold!!!!

If you market share is 100 PC and you sell 101 PC this quarter it means you grow you market share of 0.01%... Which is seems to be tiny but in fact you sold the same number of PC than Macs.... So it is not so tiny...

It is really true!!!!!!

FalKirk
on Apr 23, 2010

Ocean pretty much hit on what was I was thinking. Comparing the sales of Windows operating system - which can go on both new and existing hardware - with the sales of new computers is kind of comparing apples to oranges (no pun intended) isn't' it?

lotsamystuff
on Apr 23, 2010

I would also imagine that a substantial portion of new Macs sold include a Windows license. Who knows what percentage of Windows "sales" that accounts for, but I'm guessing it's not insignificant.

Keleko
on Apr 23, 2010
Ocean makes a good point, though. Windows sales is not the same as new PC sales. The true rate comparison is PC sales vs. Mac sales. Which one had a greater rate of increase?
MLomasIcomm
on Apr 23, 2010

It's great that WIndows is performing well, and in Windows 7 Microsoft has a hit on its hands.  People trust the product more, the product has a better reputation and it's extremely successful.

The Mac can never outdo Windows on the desktop, not least because it's just not built for business, but would I want the Mac to just go away?  No.  The competition has to come from somewhere - we've seen before how Microsoft behaves when there's no competition around.  So, if for no other reason than having 'something else', thank goodness for Mac.

yoshipod
on Apr 23, 2010

This is not surprising given the pent up demand waiting for favorable reviews of Windows 7. Lets see if this trend can continue, then we can see if there is truly a shift in the consumers mind.

As Paul so often likes to point out Win 7 is a much more substantial upgrade then 10.6 based on end user features. Combined with the generally unfavorable views of Vista, and the stability of XP, I'm sure many PC users finally took the plunge to upgrade.

In the end, this did not hurt Apple at all.  They sold the most number of computers they have ever sold in a second quarter and by one measure, their market cap topped Microsoft. Thats hardly hitting them where it hurts.

Its also telling that Microsoft made the comment about beating Apple in market share basis.  After all, with 96.4% of the market, why would they even be concerned?  

mikegalos@msn.com
on Apr 23, 2010
Paul, You really ARE trying to teach math to your readers this quarter, aren't you? ;-)
Dr. Daniel Jackson
on Apr 23, 2010

I don't think it fair to compare Windows 7 (Software) to Mac (Hardware) sales, that said, paying premium prices for hardware (Mac) that can be equally had elsewhere (PC) is just plain dumb, Macs cost way too much for what they are: Intel chipped PC's.

OS X is a great operating system, but until they are a little more competitive with their pricing, Mac's are not going to fly off the shelf, for 800$ you can build a hackintosh that runs Windows 7 and OS X better than a Mac Pro.

Apple needs to embrace the clones again. I would be the first to buy one, just as I bought Snow Leopard for my hackintosh. I like Apple products but they are just way too expensive for most people.

Apples future is in the mobile market where they already have a pretty good foothold, with some better cloud services and a little more openness to their platform, they could leave Android and WinMob in the dust, they also need to get off of AT&T. It is holding them back.

Not sure if that was really on-topic, but that's my rant for they day.

Dr. Daniel Jackson
on Apr 23, 2010

"Microsoft is active in fast-growing, developing nations where Apple doesn't have a presence"

Can't afford a Mac Book Pro in Kenya? What?, No way.

redunion1940
on Apr 23, 2010

Ocean I will point to this

"Windows consumer licenses grew by more than 35 percent"

From the above blog, that isn't windows copies just sold, that is an increase in the Windows market, there was a 35 percent increase in Windows copies active on the Internet that before, an upgrade from XP or Vista to Win 7 would not have factored into that growth.

yoshipod
on Apr 23, 2010

EricoF3

Your math is off.

Going from 2 to 3 units is a 50% growth, not a 33.3% growth.

Going from 100 to 101 units is a 1% growth, not a 0.01% growth.

rr0de74@live.com
on Apr 23, 2010

Ahh here we go again.  How many PC's did Microsoft sell?

Among makers of actual hardware hows does Apple do above the $1000 mark, market share wise?

Sure you can get a Mini for $599 US and lowest end Macbook is under $1000 ($999) but 9/10ths of what Apple sells is over 1K.   So you can easily say that Apple only competes in the 1K + market.  What are the numbers there?

As it stands now the hardware market share numbers include every rinky dink netbook on up.

rr0de74@live.com
on Apr 23, 2010
Paul you should just cover OS X sales vs Windows sales and drop the hardware sales. Software vs Software, OS vs OS sales.
chuckb84
on Apr 23, 2010

Oh, I don't know. I think passing your arch rvial's market cap after a 20 year battle hurts a lot more than this :).

Seriously, I don't think this means much. Global PC sales grew 25%, so that level of growth is essentially built in. Add to that a few upgrades to Windows 7 from Vista or XP and you get 35%. Apple got 33% growth without that huge installed base for upgrades. See, it's Windows -licenses- that are referenced here, not PC market share.

Kind of shifting the goal posts aren't we?

And let's be consistent.

If you ask "So how did Windows outperform the Mac so handily this past quarter?" over a 2% difference, then you can't also say "Apple sold 2.9 million Macs in the quarter—a gain of 33 percent—and a bit better than the broader PC industry's 25.8 percent growth" because that's a 7% difference.

If 7% is a "bit better", 2% is, as Ballmer likes to say "A rounding error."

I don't think they're losing any sleep in Cupertino over this. However, Ballmer is certainly throwing chairs over the market share report.

DRWAM
on Apr 23, 2010

I've posted this fact a couple times on this blog over the past two years. Apple seems more focused on profit, rather than market share. But Windows 7 may not be the only factor in Win growth. Security awareness and improvements take much fear away from Windows consumers. Many ISP's offer security apps free, and I would bet that successful security attacks may be much lower in these consumers. The cost of a Mac for security reasons [through obscurity], does not justify the purchase to many, and there are some nice cheap Windows computers out there.

BTW, Erico, growth from 100 to 101 computers is a growth ratio of 0.01, and a growth percent of 1%, not 0.01%. Even my $399 Acer laptop gets it right ;)

Doc

Dr. Daniel Jackson
on Apr 23, 2010

"Do not forget that each Mac licence that you count comes with an hardware sale, with a pretty confortable margin ("tax" ?, hin,hin)."

OS X is a stand alone product, you can buy it by itself.

rr0de74@live.com
on Apr 23, 2010

The title of this blog post is just too funny really.  Do you really think that Apple thinks the were "Hit where it hurts" by Microsoft?

Since both SL and W7 were essentially released at the same time, we have the best comparison possible.  

If we use the logic of the article then MS/W7 hurt Mac sales right?  This means even though Mac sales were up they could have been better????

Or since they were launched at the same time and Mac sales were up, best March quarter ever for Apple, then MS/W7 did nothing to "hit them where it hurt".

So which is it?

The reality.  Windows 7 is good, and helped Microsoft.  It however did nothing to Mac sales as they are clearly better than ever.

Dr. Daniel Jackson
on Apr 23, 2010

"I've posted this fact a couple times on this blog over the past two years. Apple seems more focused on profit, rather than market share"

In the Mac lineup, I would agree completely and it has worked very well for Apple, The mobile platform is another story. The only reason the iPod/iPhone is profitable for them is that they hold a great market share, if those products had a Zune level of market share, they would throw in the towel, because it wouldn't be profitable.

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