PlayStation 3 may never turn a profit, developer says

It looks like Sony really did steal from the Microsoft play book on this one. More specifically, it's unlikely that Sony will ever turn a profit on the PlayStation 3, unless they're able to drag the lifecycle of the device out to 10 years:

Acclaim boss David Perry has said that Sony will not be able to make a decent profit on sales of the PlayStation 3 due to selling the system at a loss.

During his keynote speech at GCDC yesterday, the outspoken games developer claimed that the company has lost more money on the PlayStation 3 than it made during the five year peak sales period of the PlayStation 2.

"Because of the cost of making the PlayStation 3 and because they sold it at a loss, Sony basically has pretty much no chance of making money on the PS3, because it's lost more money than they made during the entire peak of the PlayStation 2 - it's not going to happen again for Sony,” stated Perry.

Perry suggested that Sony's much talked about ten-year plan for the PlayStation 3 is the company's chance to claw back costs of development in the long-term. "So this is going to force them to make the PS3 last longer and they're kind of positioning to do that," he said.

A separate report explains what "the entire peak of the PlayStation 2" refers to. Apparently, it's the "five most popular years of PS2 sales":

Speaking at Leipzig, Shiny Entertainment's Dave Perry highlighted DFC research pointing to the fact that Sony has now lost more money manufacturing and selling the PS3 than it recouped during the five most popular years of PS2 sales.

Total loss estimates are up to USD 3 billion, with Sony unlikely to turn a profit on the manufacture of PS3 for another couple of years. Only the Wii has been able to make money out of the gate.

None of which is surprising, but the severity of the figures would suggest the necessity of a decidedly elongated hardware cycle even by Sony's standards.

Note that it's nearly impossible for Microsoft to ever turn a profit from its first two generations of Xbox consoles.

Also from Leipzig:
160 GB PS3 heading to North America
Sony announces PSP 3000

Discuss this Article 26

DRWAM
on Aug 20, 2008
Why don't these companies cut and run? What am I missing?
nutmac
on Aug 20, 2008
I suspect both successors to Xbox 360 and PS3 will be priced at a breakeven or profitable level (with more game-focused feature sets). Although we all like the idea of Jack-of-all-trade Xbox 360 and PS3 systems, most of us find even these heavily discounted prices to be on the expensive side. Non-gaming features (e.g., DVD/Blu-Ray playback, media extender, web browsing) can be sold as add-ons.
yipcanjo
on Aug 20, 2008
Am I missing something? I thought that the Xbox group turned a profit earlier this year.... http://www.engadget.com/2008/01/24/xbox-goes-profitable-almost-like-a-gr...
lotsamystuff
on Aug 20, 2008
So SONY has become Microsoft. Except for one quarter of Halo-driven sales, Microsoft's Entertainment and Devices division has consistently lost money. Why do they (Microsoft and SONY) continue this ridiculous path? Both companies are lumbering old-school behemoths that will do whatever it takes to win at any cost. If that means running divisions at a loss in order to buy market share, so be it. They're like two neighbors that keep buying more expensive cars to outdo the guy next door. Meanwhile, a few doors down, their more practical neighbor just keeps driving his sensible midsize sedan, running a profitable business and laughing at the dinosaurs as they swing their d**ks around and get out the measuring tape.
bettieblu
on Aug 20, 2008
What about software sales? I know the Wii cleans up in hardware sales but I also thought the xbox 360 killed them in 3rd party software sales and attach rate? I have never had interest in the Wii, I want HD gaming and it seems like everyone I know that has the Wii has a few game from Nintendo and nothing else. Most tell me it was great when they first got it, but it just sits there now. I would also say give the PS3 a year or two after HD-DVD was crushed and see how they are doing. For many I know the PS3 is Blu Ray player that plays games as well.
gorath
on Aug 20, 2008
Lotsa, that is a fantastic parallell! I've never actually laguhed out loud at a post here before! Genius!
DRWAM
on Aug 20, 2008
Gorath, I agree. Lotsa's analogy took the funny bone award today, and I what I was kinda assuming. Bettieblu also has a point, that I have brought up here before. There must be some money made on the game sales, but is it 3rd party companies? Also, Bettieblu, you were correct. I formatted the 300GB USB2 external drive as a single partition of FAT32 using Disk Utility. It took about 3 seconds and the entire drive is formatted, instead of the 32GB like before. Thanks, Doc
mikegalos@msn.com
on Aug 20, 2008
The gaming device market has been run on a model of "lose money on the console and make it up on run-time licenses from the games - both 1st party and 3rd party" ever since Nintendo brought that model to the market. Sony added to it with "and consider some of the loss a way to get penetration for our proprietary BluRay DVD format and make it up on the disc license fees"
DRWAM
on Aug 20, 2008
That seems like a bet that may have paid off Mike. Thanks.
mikegalos@msn.com
on Aug 20, 2008
DRWAM Maybe. It was a multi-billion dollar gamble that involved a lot more than just PS3. Whether it will make up the costs is still up in the air and Sony burned a LOT of bridges in a lot of industries at a time when over the air distribution may make BluRay obsolete before it pays off. Honestly, I'm not sure whether the Sony victory will turn out Pyrrhic. It's too early to know with too many variables.
Ocean
on Aug 20, 2008
>> our proprietary BluRay DVD format<< Which one is open?
brandon.pope
on Aug 20, 2008
I really don't agree that Sony and MSFT are going to move away from the "jack-of-all-trades" approach to these systems. In fact, I think the next Xbox and Playstation will aim even higher. These guys are making a gaming system first, sure, but they are really after getting their entire entertainment platforms into the living room. The whole idea of the the entertainment division as far as MSFT is concerned is getting sales on movies, tv shows, and acquiring Media Center users locked into Windows. If they have to do this through a game system, so be it, they will make some games too and loose a bit on the hardware. Expect the next big consoles to be more media focused than this generation, just as this generation took it way beyond the original xbox and the PS2.
DRWAM
on Aug 20, 2008
I was thinking about radiology's Loss Leader Strategy, which was stuff like mammography and many interventional procedures [stents, biopsies, etc...] in small hospitals. Mammography has turned the corner since digital mammography gets better reimbursement and increased productivity. Since I always forget if it's 'loss' leader or 'lost' leader, I googled it and found this at this link : http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lossleader.asp A business strategy in which a business offers a product or service at a price that is not profitable for the sake of offering another product/service at a greater profit or to attract new customers. This is a common practice when a business first enters a market; a loss leader introduces new customers to a service or product in the hope of building a customer base and securing future recurring revenue. Investopedia Says... The loss leader strategy is more than just a nifty business trick - it is a successful strategy if executed properly. A classic example is that of razor blades. Companies like Gillette essentially give their razor units away for free, knowing that customers will have to buy their replacement blades, which is where the company makes all of its profit. Another example is Microsoft's Xbox video game system, which was sold at a loss of more than $100 per unit to create more potential to profit from the sale of higher-margin video games.
johnpapola
on Aug 20, 2008
excuse the re-post... but... Off Topic... I'm producing all the promotion for the Video Game Awards on Spike this year and would love to hear from anyone that's a gamer and has an opinion on the show and what was noteworthy in gaming this year. We're brainstorming ideas for stuff we could do online and possibly in Xbox Live beyond just the on-air commercials. I'll also repost this in the PS3 thread as it's more relevant there. Feel free to use the messaging system on paul's site to ping me with thoughts and ideas.
shark47
on Aug 20, 2008
Microsoft pretty much screwed it up with the XBox. Had it not been for the reliability problems, I'm sure XBox 360 would have ended up a distant #2 behind Wii. I probably would've ended up buying one too. Anyway, PS3 at only $50 more seems like a better value to me at this point.
bettieblu
on Aug 20, 2008
Sony is going to make a killing off of Blu Ray. Blu Ray is probably the last great physical format for things like movies. Over the air will kill off any chance of another physical format to dominate past Blu Ray. However right now over the air is in its infancy. Broadband speeds are just to slow and prices to high.
bettieblu
on Aug 20, 2008
@shark47, I agree. The massive hardware failures, backing of HD-DVD and the high cost of the lackluster Xbox Live (with its many outages) will bring the 360 in last place when we look back at this generation some day. I have a 360 and a PS3, and if a game comes out on both I dont even think about getting it on the 360. The 360 still, at this point, is getting the most game support, but that is changing slowly.
tayme
on Aug 20, 2008
@shark - For the most part, I agree with you on the XBox 360. My primary use is as a Media Cener extender...bt the daughter and her friends use it a lot. She didn't take it to college with her, so maybe I'll try some of the games...but I am probably too old and and slow to fare very well at games like Halo. wouldn't mind trying some of the driving games.. After reading Paul's series on MC extenders, I may begin to look at those...but I think that I will wait until one comes out with Blu Ray...since it is the next gen video disc format. --tayme
gorath
on Aug 20, 2008
I agree with the notion that internet services will kill off blu-ray. a current, dual-layer bd can hold 50gigs of content. This enables you to watch HD movies at 1080p with the least amount of compression currently emlpyed in the consumer market (as opposed to digital satelite here in the UK, where the picture compression is frankly terrible). Anyway, I digress, to download 50gigs of content is way, way way, beyond what most people would be willing. Especially seeing as some ISPs are still enforcing usage caps.
subzerohitman721
on Aug 21, 2008
I think that both Sony and Microsoft made foolish decisions with the processors. That alone jacked up the prices of both systems and opened the door for Nintendo. Why the heck did Microsoft go with the Power PC processor? Did Sony really need the Cell processor? Why not stick with Intel and AMD? Even Apple had the common sense to switch to Intel. If both console makers had done it with the processors on the market, the systems would have fared better. I think Sony is shooting itself in the foot. They might make a great amount of money on Blu-Ray, but debt is debt. It kills your ability to do more. Also, the kinks in digital distribution will be solved. Sony's been on the slide for a long time. Along with upcoming next generation broadband services or improvements, the ISP's that are enforcing bandwith caps will be faced with those networks who don't. Right now Verizon is not placing bandwith caps on its DSL or FiOS. AT&T is not on its DSL or its U-Verse. Personally, I'd tell everyone in Beaumont and other places to switch off Time Warner and Comcast in those regions. With services like Hulu, Live Mesh, YouTube, TV networks, and other content services, the need for greater bandwith is going to go way up. Throttling down for 1 percent of bandwith hogs isn't going to make up for greater demand. Instead of massive U.S. CEO pays, bring the management pay levels down and reinvest in more robust network capacity or next generation broadband distribution. AOL tried to limit bandwith back in the day and we know how well that went for them. Comcast is paying a penalty for its throttling down of torrents. The current methods might work in the short term, but in the long term they are merely fighing an inevitable outcome. More people will be caught paying more and consumers will switch off to networks who keep broadband truely unlimited. I also agree that there should be add on accessories to video game consoles. Accessories have worked very well with PC's and could be an effective life extender for future consoles. Upgradeable memory, storage/HDD, and others can work. I just wish they'd do that with notebooks more than they are.
DRWAM
on Aug 21, 2008
I had read somewhere that Comcast lost a lawsuit that would not permit them to cap bandwith. Either way, I plan on trying FiOS [triple play] and may cancel Comast TV and probably Internet if it all works out. Two of my buddies tell me FiOs triple play works well. I just don't trust Comast well enough to try their phone service for the triple play. Anyway. my understanding why Apple dumpled PowerPC chips was size and heat. They were too big and hot to make laptops. The form factor of consoles is kinda small, which makes you wonder why the PowerPC was used. Of course, I don't know if these factors were present in all the chips, just the G5's. Still given compaints of noise, which i assume are fans, and failures possibly due to heat as I read that Xboxes get hot, it seems to apply. Personally, whenthe kids are older, I would still buy an xbox, and use AMEX for another year of warranty. For my trials, i like the graphics of the Xbox more. As would assume, I like FPS games [Doom, Quake]
gorath
on Aug 21, 2008
Still I reckon the days of people willingly downloading 50+gigs are at least 5 years away in most western countries, and possibly even more. Also, as a data backup medium, bluray is excellent. We fuly intend to get a bd burner next year as our main archiving for video projects. At the moment it's just too cumbersome to have to split them acros several dvds.
DRWAM
on Aug 21, 2008
John, sex and violence seems to sell, and several games seem to exploit it. This can probably be a topic on the show. What a change since the Pacman days!
chuckb84
on Aug 21, 2008
DRWAM "I had read somewhere that Comcast lost a lawsuit that would not permit them to cap bandwith. Either way, I plan on trying FiOS [triple play] and may cancel Comast TV and probably Internet if it all works out. Two of my buddies tell me FiOs triple play works well. I just don't trust Comast well enough to try their phone service for the triple play." Something Mac and PC users can agree on is that FIOS is great. I've had it since the day in became available in Northern VA and I just love it. Comcast (and to a lesser extent, Direct TV) are fighting back and the war seems to be centered on who can provide the most HD programming, both in live channels and VOD. The Verizon DVR is a horrible Motorola unit, but soon you'll be able to buy fancier cable cards (M-cards, so called) and use a Tivo. The "router" they give you is this strange Actiontech thing that has BOTH ethermet and coax connections, and, as a router, it is a mess, but it does work. These are minor quibbles. The punchline is that you can't beat the fiber network.
drothgery
on Aug 21, 2008
Without the RRoD issues, MS would be making money on the 360 right now; it was supposed to have a PS2-esque cost curve (where they'd lose a little initially, but be making money on hardware by year 2). Also, almost all Nintendo consoles have made money on the hardware from the very beginning. The N64 and GameCube did not, but they weren't losing very much, and got in the black quickly. Prior to this generation, the only even arguably successful console that was sold at a loss long-term was the original Xbox (because it built a lot of market share for MS, and lasted 4 years). I suspect 360 hardware will be sold at a profit as of 2009 even if the anticipated price cuts happen this fall ($199 Arcade, $299 60GB Pro, $399 Elite). But the PS3 won't be, because they can't be too much more expensive than the 360 Pro (because it's just not noticeably better at playing games) and Blu-Ray and the Cell (and nonstandard XDR memory) cost too much.
DRWAM
on Aug 21, 2008
Thanks Chuck, I'm definitely going to get FiOS Tripole Play and at least dump Comcast Cable TV. In time, I'll dump it's internet, which my company pays right now, but I own the compant, so I'm paying any way. As I posted before, I must get over the trauma of giving up my Comcast email accounts that I have for 7 or 8 years, starting when they were @Home. Then, I'll reimburse myself the $45 every month to pay for triple Play. Has anyone tried the online games that internet comapanies provide, like Comcast?

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