Stories of Windows Mobile’s demise … Greatly exaggerated? Or only a matter of time?

It seems that everyone is jumping on the “Windows Mobile is dead … or is it?” bandwagon these days. Two more examples:

Can Microsoft make its future mobile? (BBC)

And then there is Microsoft. For years the giant of desktop computing has tried to push into the mobile phone market - not without success, but ultimately remaining a niche player.

Two things held Microsoft back in the past: technology and usability.

For years mobile phone technology simply wasn't advanced enough to play to the strengths of devices that were actually mini computers.

Windows Mobile and other smartphones were held back because they had to "live with the hardware capabilities of the past; key pieces were missing," says Andy Lees, the boss of Microsoft's Mobile Communications group.

But the real Achilles heel of Microsoft's devices was their abysmal user interface - firmly wedded to the look and feel of old-fashioned computer desktops, a concept that doesn't work on small screens.

At long last this is changing, although it is not Microsoft doing the job. Instead, phone manufacturers are busy building user-friendly interfaces to sit on the Windows platform.

Andy Lees appears unruffled. For the next 18 months he promises a string of Windows mobiles with "very interesting form factors".

Microsoft, he says, is "in this for the long-term".

Google Android’s Rise, Windows Mobile’s Fall? (Laptop Magazine)

“As for [Google’s] open handset alliance, the growing list of players is certainly a positive step for Android’s future.  The combined volumes of those manufacturers and operators involved will certainly create a strong competitive threat to Windows Mobile on a global basis,” says Andy Castonguay of the Yankee Group. “Windows Mobile’s competitive positioning in the US market is relatively less threatened for the near term simply due to the weak market presence of most of the Open Handset Alliance partners, but certainly not for long.”

But will Android surpass Windows Mobile? Time will tell says Current Analysis’ Research Director of Mobile Devices Avi Greenhart. “Windows Mobile itself should see major updates in 2009 and 2010; Microsoft is also getting new licensees – Sony Ericsson, LG, and Velocity Mobile all recently launched products – and thus far there is only a single example of Android on the market, so long term consumer acceptance is still an open question. But this announcement does make it increasingly likely that Android will be a long term success.”

Discuss this Article 51

Ocean
on Dec 15, 2008
The real innovation is in the huge iPhone OS market. That market is pretty huge.
kalewallace
on Dec 15, 2008
I want nothing more than for Microsoft to get their mobile realm correct and complete the whole experience. The way the iPhone incorporates so well into Mac OS X is much more of an attractive feature than the slick user interface. As Paul's said before, WinMo is horrible (basically the same from when I started using it in its 5.0 era). The devices that are worth a crap with WinMo are ones with some kind of GUI laid on top of the underpinnings. I hope they succeed. Could Zune Mobile be the answer?
shark47
on Dec 15, 2008
"The real innovation is in the huge iPhone OS market. That market is pretty huge." There goes robertsjoe again... Paul, again, I think the problem with Windows Mobile is that it's not a consumer OS. What Microsoft needs is a new OS built from the scratch for the consumer market. Windows Mobile is fine on devices like Q9 and Blackjack. It's on touch devices that the problem exists. The OS was never designed for a touch interface, so if people don't like the experience, it's understandable. I think Zune Mobile is the answer for Microsoft. But Microsoft needs something good, quick.
mdsharpe
on Dec 15, 2008
Microsoft owe it to their customers to provide a free Windows Mobile 6.5 upgrade for all recent devices. Yes that is wishful thinking. But I don't see why it would really be a big technical challenge.
Ocean
on Dec 15, 2008
>>I think Zune Mobile is the answer for Microsoft.<< Why? Why? Why? Zune wasn't 'the answer', so why would Zune Mobile be the answer? I really think MS had better figure out what the question is first.
shark47
on Dec 15, 2008
"Why? Why? Why? Zune wasn't 'the answer', so why would Zune Mobile be the answer?" Zune was the answer. Zune proved that Microsoft can provide a great hardware and software experience. The software is a pleasure to use when compared with... you know what. The device UI is extremely intuitive. Yes, it didn't sell as much as they would have liked it to, for a variety of reasons, but that doesn't change the fact that it's actually a very nice media player. "I really think MS had better figure out what the question is first." Do you bother to think before you type?
Ocean
on Dec 15, 2008
OT: Here is a public service announcement -> Buy an iPod Touch, get a $50 gift card http://news.cnet.com/8301-13845_3-10122962-58.html?part=rss&tag=feed&sub...
Ocean
on Dec 15, 2008
>>Zune was the answer. Zune proved that Microsoft can provide a great hardware and software experience. << Thats very subjective. And according to the most important measurement, the market, no....they didn't. Check it: The most popular items in MP3 Players. Updated hourly. The first Zune is #24, with everything above it but a Coby MP3 player being some form of the iPod. The touches are particularly hot, and so is the software market for them. http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/172630?ie=UTF8&ref_=pd_...
DarkSages
on Dec 15, 2008
Paul I heard your talk about this in TWIT, I was really surprised that both you and Leo where clueless at all the different phone options out there not just windows mobile but even Blackberry. Most of the phones you mention did not represent the top tier phone for the platforms. I know that apple makes just one iPhone, but that phone set the bar for many phones that are being release now. I am not going to say that windows mobile phones are "better" than the iPhone but I will say that I prefer them. Windows mobile does not have an app store, It has many. Is the app store for the iPhone "better" yes for consumers but not for individuals like me who likes to be able to make their own apps and modifications to their phone. I have made many apps that I use with my phones that work in all windows mobile phones. For example I make one that get music info from music ID and when I connect my phone to my computer I can make it open Amazon and Zune marketplace for the songs I have IDed. I also have many others that I made for work and play. I don't have to deal with getting permission from apple to use my own smart phone. "Opera is a separate purchase" many phones come loaded with opera for free. I will say it is just as good if not better than safari. Another reason I choose windows mobile is for the many carrier options it allows me to use. I went to an apple store with my HTC Diamond and me and a friend race through a few websites to see who could load them faster. The diamond won big time, NOW BEFORE ANY OF YOU START CRYING. We also tried the wifi in the apple store the iPhone won this time not by a lot but it did. I also tried this at different locations with different iPhones with same results. Yes it was a 3G iphone, the difference was the network sprints data network is much faster at least in my area. Also my bill is half the price for my friends for about the same amount of minutes. Ok have you tried any of the top tier phones windows mobile have to offer? I mean use it for at least a week as your primary phone, and no your BlackJack does not count. I am also waiting for an update but in my experience windows mobile has been a better customer experience for me than apple. Apple fans don't get offended you may continue to pray to Steve Jobs. I am talking about my experience with apple was been horrible with many of their products actually most of them. I like some of the blackberrys but they don’t work with our setup here in the office, and I would still prefer a windows mobile phone. Well anyways sorry for the long post but I had to get this out of my chest. :-)
Ocean
on Dec 15, 2008
>>have you tried any of the top tier phones windows mobile have to offer? I mean use it for at least a week as your primary phone<< Is that what it takes to get you to like it? Too long.
shark47
on Dec 15, 2008
"Thats very subjective. And according to the most important measurement, the market, no....they didn't. Check it: The most popular items in MP3 Players. Updated hourly. The first Zune is #24, with everything above it but a Coby MP3 player being some form of the iPod. The touches are particularly hot, and so is the software market for them." OK. So are you telling me that Windows, with a 90% marketshare is better than OS X? Probably not. I know what excuse you'll come up with for not using the same measure for Windows, so save the trouble.
mikegalos@msn.com
on Dec 15, 2008
Apparently ocean feels that Macintosh's demise is only a matter of time because according to "the most important measurement, the market" it proves Apple can't provide a great hardware and software experience.
DarkSages
on Dec 15, 2008
Ocean No thats how long it takes for someone with an negative (sometimes positive) mind set on something to clear their head and make a real opinion on what they are using not what they have used in the passed.
Ocean
on Dec 15, 2008
>>So are you telling me that Windows, with a 90% marketshare is better than OS X? << Sure seems that way, though Apple and its stockholders have to be very happy with it's performance the last couple of years.
mdsharpe
on Dec 15, 2008
I agree with DarkSages on this. If I was going to properly evaluate any system, I would want at least a few days. It takes that long to become familiar with things, and to learn the shortcuts and find the little quirks and features. Even longer if you start out with a biased negative mindset.
Ocean
on Dec 15, 2008
>>Amazon has been selling digital music from all the big music labels for nearly a year now. It’s the first major challenge to Apple’s hammerlock on that business. So how did it do? If you view Amazon’s MP3 store as a would-be iTunes-killer, or even a would-be iTunes rival, it has failed miserably. << http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20081215/amazons-mp3-store-one-year-in-n...
SandmanX82
on Dec 15, 2008
@Ocean "Thats very subjective. And according to the most important measurement, the market, no....they didn't." 50 Cent Bulletproof must be an absolute amazing game then. Britney Spears has to be by far the greatest music artist of our time then. And...Windows is SIGNIFICANTLY better than Mac.
Josh_Miller
on Dec 15, 2008
I have been using a Blackjack II for a while and I personally enjoy it. It's good for email and Twitter. I'll admit the web experience isn't the best but that seems to be more because Mobile internet is just flat out slower than a PC. My wife has a Blackberry Pearl which is similar in design but I never cared much for the Blackberry OS interface from what I've used of it.
Waethorn
on Dec 15, 2008
">>Zune was the answer. Zune proved that Microsoft can provide a great hardware and software experience. << Thats very subjective. And according to the most important measurement, the market, no....they didn't." We'll remember you said that everytime you use the same argument for the Mac.
j4m3s0n79
on Dec 15, 2008
Guys, Look, it's all speculation here as to the future of WinMo or ZuneMo or whatever. What we can say for certain however is that MS is really wising up to the consumer market and though the Zune is not a commercial success, most people will tell you it can hold it's own in the DAP market. Take a look at the 360 and how in 2 generations, MS went from being nobody to the dominant player. I think it's inevitable that MS makes some strides on the consumer side of the mobile phone market. They aquired danger and have been honing their mobile platform for some time now. Its a logical concept that they will bridge mobile entertainment (casual), zune pass and a phone application on a mobile device. Do not expect this to be the vpn, outlook/exchange, mobile productivity monster everyone expects. Instead, I would think that they will create and support the hardware to make the experience as succinct as possible. From where I sit, it's one more option, if it's good, we all win, and if it's not...don't buy it.
theCheez
on Dec 15, 2008
@Ocean "Check it: The most popular items in MP3 Players. Updated hourly. The first Zune is #24, with everything above it but a Coby MP3 player being some form of the iPod. The touches are particularly hot, and so is the software market for them. www.amazon.com/.../172630" Well when I look at that link it shows that Zune is #25, but it is behind only Apple and the Sansa. Though while that is low, it is not lower than every mp3 player out ther but one. 23 out of 25 mp3 players on that list are iPods.
subzerohitman721
on Dec 15, 2008
I believe Microsoft can kill two birds with one stone using the Zune system. Replace WMP with the Zune Player and replace WM with a Zune based phone. It comes off as a win-win for several reasons. A fresh and clean platform is easier to build up than one that is cluttered. This is also the case with Windows Seven. From the reports I've read or podcast I've heard, Windows Seven is coming along quickly because of the hard work and refresh work done in Windows Vista. We've seen this when Microsoft switched from 9x to the NT with both Windows 2000 and XP. As we've seen with Vista, it allows to build in security and greater stability. It allows interoperability between so many services. Zune Marketplace, Zune Mobile, Xbox Live, Windows, etc. If a seamless experience can be established between the services, the users will flock to it. Especially if Microsoft adopts a strategy to undercut the iTunes and iPod with both hardware and services. It allows you start fresh with customers. New marketing and a chance to succeed where WM failed. If Microsoft offered a free update to all WM customers, that would be nice restart. For Windows, it means a leaner, meaner media player that has a chance to challenge iTunes with functionality still not available. If Microsoft could find its own way to sync with the iPod then you have created an alternative to iTunes. Since other third party applications sync to the iPod, Microsoft can do so without legal repercussions. Perhaps its the cure for a lot of Microsoft ills. Keep refreshing all the software and services as we're seeing with Windows Seven, Live Essentials, etc.
Ocean
on Dec 15, 2008
>>New marketing and a chance to succeed where WM failed.<< "I'm a Zune" commercials?
lotsamystuff
on Dec 15, 2008
"Paul, again, I think the problem with Windows Mobile is that it's not a consumer OS. " Then who's buying it? "Non-consumers"? Relax. It's a joke. What you're really saying is that The Enterprise™ will gladly accept crap as long as it has Microsoft branding. That's just sad.
subzerohitman721
on Dec 15, 2008
@lotsa, "What you're really saying is that The Enterprise™ will gladly accept crap as long as it has Microsoft branding. That's just sad." From my understanding and experiences working for companies and corporations do gladly accept crap as long as it gets them through the work day. For example, Walgreens still uses an inventory management system thats DOS like in its execution. They run on old IBM computers for that system which should be considered relics today. A security operations center for a Dallas high rise complex in North Dallas uses an outdated camera computer control program. The fire control system? 20 years old. Heck, I found a library computer in DISD running Windows 3.11 in 2003! I didn't even imagine a Windows 3 machine running, but to my surprise it still worked and even had a graphical browser functionality. For businesses, they don't care if its crap. They want the cheapest and quickest that gets the job done. I think this is the biggest difference between Mac users and the rest of the world. The rest of the world doesn't care for perfection. Just get the job done decently and within our income limits.
Ocean
on Dec 15, 2008
>>The rest of the world doesn't care for perfection.<< I thought Mike said Windows was perfect.
tayme
on Dec 15, 2008
Just got my WinMo powered Samsung Omnia...so far, I like it a lot. Let me use if for a few days/weeks and I'll know more. I hope they bring the Zune software to WinMo...then I can ditch my Zune player(which I also like a lot) and reduce the number of devices I carry. --tayme
shark47
on Dec 15, 2008
"What you're really saying is that The Enterprise™ will gladly accept crap as long as it has Microsoft branding. That's just sad." Actually, not just Microsoft branding. Few businesses want features like pinching and multitouch on phones. (That might change, but as of now, few businesses want it.) Also, most businesses give out smartphones to their employees not so that they can listen to music or watch videos or play games or in many cases, even browse the web. The ability to make phone calls and to check emails is the primary consideration. In fact, tying the phone to iTunes might actually prevent some businesses from adopting the iPhone, like someone pointed out the other day. Windows Mobile never generated the kind of buzz that the iPhone did because it was aimed at a totally different market. I think Microsoft made a big mistake by letting OEMs add a few multitouch features and sell the phone to consumers (not enterprises). That's what gave the OS a bad name.
robertsjoe
on Dec 15, 2008
Windows Mobile is on its way down, for sure. They have done hardly anything in what, six versions? They've been asleep at the wheel not innovating at all. Then Apple shows them how to do it. That's the typical Microsoft modus operandi.
Master3
on Dec 15, 2008
"Windows Mobile is on its way down, for sure." Yeah, for sure. I mean it's all over, aint it? "They have done hardly anything in what, six versions? They've been asleep at the wheel not innovating at all." If only they put nice animated transitions, then they can really be called "innovators". Or how about 3G or copy and paste? Everything software-related you see in the iPhone existed in Winmobile for years. Apple puts a shiny interface on there phone and it's moronic userbase calls it innovation. Just another day in retard paradise with Ocean and robertjoe i suppose.
DRWAM
on Dec 15, 2008
Wow, I guess I better tell all the doctors in the US that WinMo is going down the tubes. I would bet that not even someone my size could tear the WinMo phones out off everyones' hand. Tere's just too many checking your labs, keeping track of billing and prescription writing. Integrate with MS Amalga and wow! 50% less medical mistakes. I guess we're going keep killing patients. Bummer. We'll even lose the billing info so we won't even get paid after we bury them, since their WinMo phones won't be around to gather the info. Double bummer.
robertsjoe
on Dec 15, 2008
@master3 "Everything software-related you see in the iPhone existed in Winmobile for years." But of course! That's why everyone has been raving about Windows Mobile for years. Because they have been such game changers when it comes to mobile computing. Apple did it RIGHT. People hate using mobile devices, especially for internet, email and the like. Now people love using the iPhone. Love the device. The software. Never heard of with Windows Mobile, Symbian and the like.
Lindy
on Dec 15, 2008
"It allows interoperability between so many services. Zune Marketplace, Zune Mobile, Xbox Live, Windows, etc. If a seamless experience can be established between the services, the users will flock to it. Especially if Microsoft adopts a strategy to undercut the iTunes and iPod with both hardware and services." eFFFing pipe dream brother. Zune is "Ok" now, but version 1.0 and 2.0 of the desktop software were horrible...HORRIBLE, lacking pod cast support, would not work on 64bit versions of Windows etc. The only think that links the Zune with the 360 is that Fraking STUPID points system which is flat out the lamest thing ever. It kept me from purchasing anything from MS when I used my 360. Zune and its store is NEVER going to overtake the iPod/iTunes world...NEVER. Microsoft has a really long way to go and lots of clean up of its current offerings before they will gain ground. Right now its a huge mess of confusing offerings. Example I think skydrive is great, but does it work with folder sync no wait I mean Live Sync or Live Mesh??? Confusion. Hey but what do I know, according to subzero I live beyond my means because I own two Macs.
shark47
on Dec 15, 2008
"Hey but what do I know" Oh, come on, lindy. You "know" that Microsoft sucks and have been working hard with the rest of the group to spread the word. Don't second guess yourself, man. robertsjoe is proud of you, no matter what. You'll always be his favorite. ;-)
Lindy
on Dec 15, 2008
Did you mom write that Shark? Creative she is not. Microsoft is no better or worse than Apple. IMHO they hardly compete much at all. Where they do have overlap one or the other dominates and the other is in catchup mode.
shark47
on Dec 15, 2008
"Did you mom write that Shark? Creative she is not." How creative can one be when stating facts? "Microsoft is no better or worse than Apple. " Where did that come from? It's like two people are using your login.
Lindy
on Dec 15, 2008
Lol read my past comments shark. I give credit where credit is due and I have zero problems pointing out those things I think are wrong/stupid whatever. Just go to the thread on Thunderbird, where Mike and I went round and round. I said Outlook was great with Exchange and POP3 but sucked at IMAP. Microsoft makes some great products. I have been supporting them now since Windows 286...18 year?? They also have made some bad moves...Vista was a huge one. Apple is not the answer for everything either. At this moment they are more in sync with the consumer vs business where MS dominates. That could change. On the consumer side of things its Apple game to loose right now.
mikegalos@msn.com
on Dec 15, 2008
Lindy, I was listening to podcasts on Zune 2.0 from the day it was released. Guess you didn't use 2.0 and thought it was the same as 1.0 even though it was a total rewrite. Maybe you should research before you post what your friends told you as though it was fact or what you vaguely remember. Funny thing how the errors always seem to favor Apple and work against Microsoft. Just coincidence, I guess...
robertsjoe
on Dec 15, 2008
@mikegalos: "Funny thing how the errors always seem to favor Apple and work against Microsoft.' Cry baby. Crying a river for a massive, convicted monopolist, corporation? Amusing.
robertsjoe
on Dec 15, 2008
Isn't it amazing how the better products raise to the top when you're not competing against something locked in to an OS by someone that got to where they are through monopolistic methods? http://blogs.zdnet.com/Google/?p=1207 IE is an awful browser.
Dipsh t Admin
on Dec 16, 2008
So, robertsjoe, someone break in to your account? I could have sworn that you said that you were leaving. Certainly a person of your obvious taste and caliber wouldn't lie, so a account hijacking is the only thing I can think of that makes sense. ;) A word to the wise, don't use "stevejobsismygod" as your password. It's too easy to guess.
Waethorn
on Dec 16, 2008
"2.0 of the desktop software....would not work on 64bit versions of Windows etc." Lie #29573.
Waethorn
on Dec 16, 2008
"IE is an awful browser." Still better than Chrome and Safari: http://blogs.zdnet.com/security/?p=2305
DRWAM
on Dec 16, 2008
Dipsh, they took $14K off the left over 2008 R350, so I'm getting one for my wife tomorrow since her lease is up. I saved the money by buying a $400 Vista laptop:)
chipwinter
on Dec 16, 2008
Just heard this on ABC News this morning: "Security experts says that people should use a browser other than Internet Explorer until Microsoft addresses the current problem." Probably not very good news for online retailers who are counting on sales the week before Christmas. Still, as Waethorn points out, "better than Chrome and Safari." Why isn't ABC saying that?
Lindy
on Dec 16, 2008
I stand corrected Zune 2.0 did have podcast and 64bit support. It was Smart Play lists that it did not have in 1.0 and 2.0. I won a Zune, Brown 30gig no less, at a technet event. At the time I had a notebook that was running Vista business 64bit and Zune 1.0 would not install. There was a hack floating around for it but I never tried it. My kids used the Zune for a portable movie device for a short while I did briefly install 2.0 and saw that it still had no smart play lists and a lame song rating system, before I sold it on ebay. 2.0 was vastly better than 1.0 as in it would not crash and did not take forever to start. One thing I distinctly remember is that when scrolling fast through the all songs list you would get the large letter on the screen like....A....B.....C etc. Which is exactly like contacts in Windows Mobile. Do they use the same base OS? Or just that feature? If they are the same then scrapping WinMo would mean a rewrite for the Zune to some extent.
DRWAM
on Dec 16, 2008
MY wife's new car came with an iPod integration kit. No more CD's! I got a free nano from TD Ameritrade. [otherwise, I bought Sansa's, although she bought me an iPhone. Everyone else at the IT committee is using WinMo and carry HP laptop's although mostly XP. who knows what they have at home. The MSQA inspector today told me that he does not like Vista, but his eyes glowed when I told him about my $400 Vista laptop.
Dipsh t Admin
on Dec 16, 2008
DRWAM, I've actually called that the iPod Dis-Integration kit, since it is nice and everything, but it really doesn't do all that much. They have improved it for the 2009 models thankfully, as it wasn't something that I would have recommended anyone actually pay for. The huge amounts that they took off though certainly make that a moot point though! Lindy, I'm not sure what the Zune OS is based on, but I don't think it is WinMo. The test will be whether MS made the Zune OS extensible to do more in the future, which I would believe they would. If they do come out with a Zune Phone, I could see them still maintaining and improving WinMo to serve their business users.
Waethorn
on Dec 16, 2008
"It was Smart Play lists that it did not have in 1.0 and 2.0." Wow. It only took 2 major product updates to get it. Where is your criticism of Apple for taking a longer dev time and as many version upgrades for the same thing? Where is your criticism of Apple for literally copying the new music discovery features of Zune 3.0 (but doing a half-baked text version of it)? "Do they use the same base OS? Or just that feature? If they are the same then scrapping WinMo would mean a rewrite for the Zune to some extent." Supposedly they use a lot of the same underlying stuff. Remember the Portable Media Centers, to which the Zune borrows much of the same interface? They did - the startup logo even says "Windows Mobile". I guess that just goes to show you that Windows Mobile (nee, Windows CE) isn't a hopeless cause that people like you or Paul would say it is. The smartphone UI that they have on Windows Mobile powered smartphones is just a different UI, which borrows somewhat (but has been revised) from the classic Windows CE UI (which itself is from Windows 95).
whiplash55
on Dec 16, 2008
Windows Mobile needs to be completely redone. Apple has done a great job with the iphone/ipod touch, I bought one for my daughter she loves it (the Touch). Microsoft should build on the Zune platform with a a Windows Live Phone. A decent browser would be nice and make it more open so you can use mobile Opera or Firefox. The Live Mail program should be ported to mobile environment, with a Zune player inside. Lastly a decent camera would be nice the iPhone's isn't worth the bother. For people who actually try the Zune they often prefer it, it sounds better than my Nano and has more usable features, such as a FM radio and wireless syncing. It proves MS can make a decent portable device if they want.

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