Windows, not Walls

"Seeing how this is Paul's blog, I'll cite Paul." Spoken like a true WinJihadist--repeat "facts" event though they've already been proven to be wrong.

@tayme "Geez, MaryW...don't take it personal." Don't worry, I'm not. I was just responding to your post where you criticise Apple's ad campaign... for not showing the OS and not leading to increased sales. I figured that there was a chance that you may not have realised that Apple had doubled it's US market share since the campaign started. Now after seeing the figures.. you write... "I would have thought htat would have turned into some consumer sales...but for the large part, it did not" I repeat! Apple had doubled it's US market share since the campaign started. That's from Gartner (a leading member of the iCabal obviously)... not me. Care to explain how growing 80% in two years is NOT increasing sales?

Mary I don't know what market they were talking about but... Apple's share of the US market has NOT doubled since the "Get a Mac" campaign started in 2006. (It's been in the 7% range the whole time) Apple's share of the Global market has NOT doubled since the "Get a Mac" campaign started in 2006. (It's been in the 3.5% range the whole time) Apple's share of the Non-US market has NOT doubled since the "Get a Mac" campaign started in 2006. (It's been in the 2.3% range the whole time) Perhaps they're citing sales of laptops with magnetic power connectors to left handed college students in Northern California who wear mittens.

Re. the crowds outside Orange stores in Poland. There is much that is pathetic about this. If it's true then it's just a bit .... pathetic!. Once the crowds are in place .... if it's true that a "spokesman" admits to it ... then that's pretty pathetic. If it's true that Mike says Apple paid for iPhone queues in EUROPE..... when Reuters writes "Orange is paying dozens of actors to stand in queues" ... it's equally pathetic. Oh shoot! Its true.

@gorath - Good advice on a Friday afternoon. @MaryW - I am asking this because I don't know and have never seen a breakdown - Some people like to attribute various percentages of Windows sales to the Enterprise market, and suggest that those numbers should be subtracted from the overall figures because the user has not choice but to use Windows. In fact, Avro does exactly that in this thread. Do you know what percentage of Apple sales go to Educational Institutions and the Audio/Video production segments? Shouldn't we, in turn, subtract those numbers from Apples sales to get a "true" picture? Again, it has been my experience that most people that I know that own Macs, including myself, were not swayed by the Mac vs PC adverts. I am not a recent convert, either...I have been using Apple products your many, many years. I am still able to see that both OSes serve the population as a whole, very well...so does Solaris, HP_UX, Z-OS, various Linux distros, and others. I am not wearing blinders that block out the many uses of each Operating System like so many others are. --tayme

MaryW Even if it's just Orange in Poland, one thing is sure, iPhone sales in Poland will be up by a huge percentage! (Of course, since the iPhone wasn't available in Poland before this, it'd be hard for them not to be up by a huge, even infinite, percentage) :-)

@Master3 - Do you mean how Mike keeps lambasting people for the very things that he does...There is no doubt that Mike is a smart guy when it comes to MS and Windows...but it seems to end there. His "God" complex is pretty entertaining, though. --tayme

@ Mike Some figures for you. Apple is more popular in Canada than the US Apple dominates the education market in Europe in new sales Apple dominates the education market in Australia in new sales The BBC has said that 33% of the hits on its website come from MacUsers This is hardly what normal people would consider "badly outside the US" Mac shipments were 400,000 in Europe in the last Quarter, up 47% over the same Quarter last year Talk about the Grand Illusion

"Apple is more popular in Canada than the US" Ok. Hockey is more popular too, so what? "Apple dominates the education market in Europe in new sales Apple dominates the education market in Australia in new sales" Find a niche. Declare victory. When you have to subtract everything else out of the pie so you can make Apple "dominate", then what does that tell you? "The BBC has said that 33% of the hits on its website come from MacUsers" Again...So? "This is hardly what normal people would consider "badly outside the US" You really didn't illustrate anything to be honest. "Mac shipments were 400,000 in Europe in the last Quarter, up 47% over the same Quarter last year" How many were sold? How many PCs were "shipped" as well? And up 47% from what number? "Talk about the Grand Illusion" Exactly.

I would take it that all the 600,000 were sold. Pretty obvious. Niche markets. Yes, like the Enterprise niche market where a few gormless corporate drones order vast numbers of computers based only on commodity pricing. :-))

@Avro - "based only on commodity pricing." I believe that compatibility with existing applications has quite a bit to do with it as well. Take off the blinders...look at the real world. Like I have said...each OS has its place. Get over it, or continue living a boring life. --tayme

@mathue, Thank you very much! What a nice compliment! I guess nobody bought my script pitch for the gates commercial, though. Heh. I think it'd be pretty funny and is in line with his statements about Vista to paraphrase from his interview at D "being a lesson in mistakes". Of course, this thread rapidly devolved into a meaningless and context-free debate about Apple marketshare instead of an on-topic discussion of Microsoft's strategy and potential effectiveness of this new slogan and front man. meh. Again, if Microsoft thinks that "fighting back against Apple directly" is going to help their brand, given their market position, they're in for a surprise. They are Goliath in the computing world. That narrative works against any effort to attack Apple as the David of computing. The slogan is very good. But I just don't understand it outside of a comparison to Apple. What walls besides those imposed in the Apple world? Anyone? Anyone? I'm frankly not sure why they even care if people skip Vista or worry if they do. They make their license fee on every PC no matter what happens. Given that, it's hard not to take this effort and an implicit admission that Apple's gains are having a material impact and not just a perceptive one. If vista is so great (and I'm not saying that it isn't great), than that reality will emerge given that Vista's adoption is inevitable. Funny Apple ads aren't going to make someone that's enjoying their PC suddenly stop enjoying it. Clearly, Microsoft is not confident that Vista's benefits speak for themselves in the use of the product. Apple, on the other, is very confident about OSX. That, coupled with the inherent non-TV-friendly nature of an OS demo is the reason why Apple leaves software demos to be done one-on-one at an Apple store and not in 30 second TV spots. That's for you Tayme. I know you've advocated OSX ads. I think they'd be horribly boring and ineffective.

I wasn't a big fan of Seinfeld's show, but i think it's worth a shot. I guess that I thought that the Bee Movie was a a success based on the presence of Bee Movie toys at McDonalds! I would bet that MS takes the high road and does not exploit him as a switcher, but MS ads need a fresh start. The Zune TV ads were not good, IMO. I kinda get it that Zune is for all ages, so they showed people from kids to octagenarians, but it made me feel that it was a toy for old people, you know, like Mike G.:) I'm definitely with tayme as the ads should focus on what the product does, not what the competition does not. Apple used Jeff Goldbloom and Sinbad, which are nice poeple, but not interesting. I had read that the Mac/PC Brit ads accross the pond came off as smug, so hopefully MS will learn not to make the same mistakes that Apple has made with some ads. The Vista bashing has got to go. Showing unity would be interesting to many,IMO. Let them fuse the two guys and let it 'feel good'. Sorry I didn't post earlier, but I was saving lives.

I don't know who the hell is figuring out these figures for macs in european markets. But, apple dominates the education market? pish, that has to be a flat out lie, I reckon. They're doing well, yes, but not that well. As for media? none of our video or audio workstations are macs, because we want our hardware to still be relevant in the future. We've been stung before by systems that are incompatible a mere 5 years down the line. We don't use macs, 'cause we don't want to go there again.

Here's a question for everyone: A lot of Mac owners seem to be obsessed with what Paul has to say about Windows. In fact, we even have a poster, who goes by "Paul's Fact Checker". We also have lotsamystuff, nim55,cesjr, among others, frequently commenting about how inaccurate Paul's reporting about Apple is. And while they do look for inaccuracies* in Paul's commentary about other products like Wii and PS3, their main focus is Apple, as many must have noticed. My question is to all those who read blogs and articles written by those on the Apple side, like Gruber, Mossberg, Pogue, and to some extent, Daniel Lyons. Do you have this many Windows users coming there and commenting on everything these people have to say about Microsoft? *An inaccuracy here is any opinion that differs from theirs.

"Ads from the same company telling us how bad Vista supposedly is are totally ok, but they cant be bothered to tell us how good theirs is in the same time frame?" Good point. And that's exactly why I think they're like the negative political ads. And anyone who talks about the fact that Apple's ads work, have you heard of Kevin Trudeau? He's made millions of dollars just by talking about how much the FDA sucks. Are his infomercials effective? You bet. His book about natural cures was on the NY Times bestseller's list for a long time. Does he talk about any of his cures in the infomercial? Not really. He simply targets the FDA and drug industry.

@mikegalos "I don't know what market they were talking about but..." They are talking about THE PC MARKET. You know the one. The one that Paul talks about every quarter. I am not trying to trick you Mike (maybe Gartner is...), there is no catch.... these figures are not split up into business vs consumer .... or cheap vs expensive ..... or even fruit flavoured vs ..... er ... not fruit flavoured!. Just PCs. All of them. "Apple's share of the US market has NOT doubled since the "Get a Mac" campaign started in 2006. (It's been in the 7% range the whole time)" Apple US market share for 2005 : 3.98% Apple US market share 1Q 2006 : 3.96% GetaMac campaign starts May 2006 Apple US market share 2Q 2008 : 8.47% Source: Gartner "Apple's share of the Global market has NOT doubled since the "Get a Mac" campaign started in 2006. (It's been in the 3.5% range the whole time)" Apple global market share for 2005 : 2.17% Apple global market share 1Q 2006 : 1.95% GetaMac campaign starts May 2006 Apple global market share 2Q 2008 : 3.47% Source: Gartner "Apple's share of the Non-US market has NOT doubled since the "Get a Mac" campaign started in 2006. (It's been in the 2.3% range the whole time)" You can work this one out yourself.... you're obviously good with numbers! You can start here. Knock yourself out. http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=724111

Sorry for the barrage of posts from me, but I would like to reiterate that I have nothing against Apple's products. I think the iPhone is a very cool and innovative phone. What I have a problem with is the ads and the attitudes of some of the Mac owners. I think the ads should be recognized for what they are - attack ads. They're in no way subtle -- some of the ads actually talk about Windows Vista. And attack ads are usually effective otherwise they wouldn't be used by so many politicians. Even Barack Obama, whose entire campaign is based on being different uses them. For some reason, negative ads appeal to people. Apple's ads rarely focus on what's right with OS X, instead choosing to amplify everything that's wrong with Windows. If I'm undecided and you keep running ads that point to Obama's celebrity status, I soon start seeing him in a different light. That's why I think Mac ads work at some level. They make you focus on the Windows' negatives. And there's no factcheck.org for these ads.

shark Of course they're attack ads. And I don't even have a problem with that. What I do have a problem with is that they're deceptive attack ads. They're much closer to Karl Rove's infamouus 2000 push-poll ad that asked, "Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for [opponent x] if the story came out that he had an illegitimate black child?" than "[Opponent x] voted against [proposition y]. He's wrong for us." which is still an attack ad but actually has fact rather than carefully worded inuendo. Go watch the "Get a Mac" ads and watch how few of them present any facts of any kind. I think you'll be amazed at how consistently fact-free they are. Oh, and Mac Fans, feel free to tell us which "Get a Mac" ads presented real facts, too. I wouldn't want you to miss out and you can have several minutes of fun watching them all over again.

@johnpapola I was going to respond to you earlier. I got distracted! I think everyone (and I mean everyone... 'around the web) is getting the new Microsoft campaign wrong. Window's fans, here and elsewhere, who don''t like Apple's ads just want to see Microsoft give Apple a good kicking. And the tech press always like to write headlines that pit companies against each other. I am sure that Microsoft is concerned about Apple's recent successes and equally sure that their execs are pissed with the Get a Mac campaign. However these guys are not stupid (really!) and nor, apparently, is their ad agency. The greater concern is that Apple had the ammunition to blitz Microsoft in the first place and even if the real problems that people experienced with Vista have gone ..... a strong perception remains. That's why we got treated to Mojave! People around here like to blame Apple or the alleged iCabal (which now appears to include WinCabal types as well) for Microsoft's woes but Microsoft realises that it is responsible for it's own missteps. It has admitted as much. On an advertising note, the big Ad companies must have been rubbing their hands together when they finally saw the "Wow" campaign and read the first reviews of Vista. It could be a risk but Crispin Porter + Bogusky is a brave choice. So... ( I am distracting myself now!)..... I don't think this campaign is going to "go after Apple". It might try and counter Apple's bullet points and will try and address the whole Vista perception problem. But better than Mojave. DISCLAIMER. It's a clever agency. There might be some veiled references to Apple but that would be to placate a few Microsoft execs and give the fans a giggle. Joe computer user won't even notice. Despite the specifics I have mentioned I would expect this campaign to be pretty general. Sure they are going to cover Vista but the campaign hasn't started yet ... and Windows 7 is due early 2010. Try and do a bit of housekeeping but keep an eye on the future. Generic but effective is not going to be easy. I am curious to see what they come up with. On Tag-lines and TV stars. I agree "Windows not Walls" sound pretty strong. I like it. Despite your reservations I think it has a lot of mileage. There could be a lot of visual stuff to play with there. And it already throws up a subtle counterpoint to Apple's campaign. Let's face it ... by the time you have seen just a couple of the Apple ads you are already rewriting the line in your head. "Get a Mac ..... not a PC!" It's not so in-your-face but with Microsoft you get "Windows NOT something else" For those of you complaining about Jerry Seinfeld... what's your beef? I like Jerry. Lots of people do. So what that he's not young and hip anymore. Who says Microsoft is trying to be hip? I am pretty sure that their agency is not even going to try to make Microsoft hip. You never know they might be writing a script that takes advantage of the fact that Seinfield's most popular days are behind him .... now there's an idea.... Guessing over. Let's see what transpires. Walls fade out ...... Just leaving Windows....

John It doesn't matter what anyone elses margins are. The point is, who brags about how much profit they're paying to a vendor? As for lemmings, I suspect that lemmings make up far less than 4% of animals. That doesn't mean they're not lemmings. (And, actually, I refer to sheep unlike Apple's 1985 superbowl campaign which did equate PC users as lemmings.)

Shark47 - "An inaccuracy here is any opinion that differs from theirs" i.e., mac fans. Wrong - an inaccuracy is simply that. something that is not accurate. For example, in his latest iphone 3g review, Paul wrote: "The unjustifiedly positive early reviews {of the original iPhone} from Apple fanatics at the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and USA Today were so out of touch with reality that I was determined to set things right: The iPhone was not the perfect device trumpeted by these guys" This is inaccurate. These guys never said the original iPhone was perfect. Mossberg of the WSJ acknowledged that it had "flaws and feature omissions" including that it "uses a pokey network called EDGE," had "no way to cut, copy, or paste text" and that "Voice call quality was good, but not great." He also had a whole paragraph entitled "Missing features" You can find it all here - http://solution.allthingsd.com/20070626/the-iphone-is-breakthrough-handh... Pogue of the NYT wrote: "As it turns out, much of the hype and some of the criticisms are justified. The iPhone is revolutionary; it’s flawed. It’s substance; it’s style. It does things no phone has ever done before; it lacks features found even on the most basic phones." In a widely reported comment, he said that the virtual keyboard was "frustrating" and not as good for text entry as the Blackberry. He wrote that the EDGE network was "excruciatingly slow." He noted a long list of missing features, including no memory-card slot, no chat program, no voice dialing, no third party apps, no MMS photos, and that "The browser can’t handle Java or Flash, which deprives you of millions of Web videos." Also, "So yes, the iPhone is amazing. But no, it’s not perfect." http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/27/technology/circuits/27pogue.html Baig of USA Today said the same thing - "Still, iPhone isn't perfect, or even the most ideal smartphone for every user. It's pricey. It lacks certain features found on some rival devices. AT&T's coverage was spotty in some areas I tested over the past two weeks. Your employer may prevent you from receiving corporate e-mail on the device." He noted also that EDGE was slow, there was not voice dialing, etc. http://www.usatoday.com/tech/columnist/edwardbaig/2007-06-26-iphone-revi... So, Paul writes a lot of stuff that is simply inaccurate and wrong. Why? That's easy - he's incredibly biased against apple and for MS and simply falls over himself criticizing apple while going easy on MS and doing puff piece reviews of their products.

@mikegalos "Mary, you're comparing different quarters to get those values." What is wrong with you Mike? I told you I wasn't going to trick you and I meant it. The figures are directly from Gartner press releases. I haven't cherry picked the best ones. It's just an unfortunate fact that Mac unit sales have been trending upwards with the result that the latest published figures are the best. Perhaps you would like me to wait until Mac sales plummet (Any day now) and then I would have to agree with you? I just don't know what figures you would need to satisfy you. I gave you figures showing Apple's market share for a full year and a quarter prior to their ad campaign..... and I gave you the most recent published figures. I didn't list every single quarter since the campaign launched because all they show is that upward trend I mentioned. You are countering these Gartner stats with figures that you appear to be pulling out from your..... imagination. Where are you getting them from? Got a link? "Sales in December 2007 were a lot higher than sales in January 2008. Does that mean Apple had some kind of disaster?" I get the Christmas thing Mike. And you might have a point if it were not for the fact that these figures seem to show that all the PC manufacturers post higher sales in 4Q. In fact in the last couple of years, despite selling a few less units in the quarter after the holidays, Apple's market share has actually risen in that timeframe. Oops! I hope that's nothing to do with their effective ad campaign. ;) "But you knew that." Yes I did. But as stated above... in this case, it doesn't make a jot of difference. Mike, I am not going to argue about a tenth of a percent here or there but I can't let ridiculous statements like "It's been in the 7% range the whole time" (a period over 2.5 years) go unchallenged. This is Paul's blog and he has meticulously recorded the fall and then the rise of Mac market share for a long time now. I don't understand why Paul can see it but you refuse to. "for those who care to be honest, estimates of Mac market share 2006 were 6%" What's the point? The GetaMac campaign started in May of 2006. I thought this was supposed to be a 'before and after' comparison. btw. for those who care to be honest Gartner has 2006 pegged at 4.96% (Mac US) with all the best figures showing up after the start of the campaign. I guess people started getting a Mac straight away.

>>offers tons of new capabilities especially with modern hardware. << Tell me.

@shark I agree that' its disappointing that a a thread about Microsoft's immanent advertising campaign should get derailed to Apple's declining Mac sales and Polish people being forced to queue for bread. :) Hey! It just struck me that if Mr Galos was running the numbers at Microsoft they wouldn't need to bother with the "Walls" campaign.