PC Armageddon: Q4 2014?

Obligatory XKCD: http://xkcd.com/605/ I'm pretty sure Paul was making a joke here, people.

Not sure about the point of this...to forecast possible consumer shift in preference of tablets over "PC"s or to say they will prefer devices that are not running Windows. It is not unreasonable to think that Windows 8 / RT based tablets will account for the majority of forecasted shipments. Totally unrelated, I've only briefly played with the Consumer Preview and I'm curious about Modern apps in Windows 8 .. do we have 32-bit / 64-bit versions or does this become irrelevant? Is there or will there be such a thing as a CPU intensive / non-gaming Modern app? Will Windows Store allow me to purchase an app if my current hardware doesn't meet minimum app requirements? I do hope you will write more about the store, apps and hardware requirements for running these apps. Thanks

I don't get this. You're basing shipment predictions on tablets only on the last quarter. It would make more sense to calculate the average from the start....or at least work out an exponential curve. Even if shipments gained exponentially, if you start your curve at the beginning of the iPad launch, the curve would still be far smaller than basing it just on the increase in shipments between Q1 and Q2. Excel would certainly do that work for you. BTW: When are you going to fix IE10 compatibility with this site???

Paul, you're failing at statistics and process analysis here! You can't just extend the last segment, you have to calculate a trendline and extrapolate that. Realistically, armageddon would be placed a few years back, because the trend line wouldn't be as steep as the last segment. =)

Hey Paul, I think whatever numbers we look at do give a pretty good idea of the trends; however we still may not have a good idea on the markets overall capacity for these types of devices.... A certain percentage of PC users will have multiple devices for quite sometime and many people who don't have a PC may only buy a tablet. So overall I think the real unknown might be device capacity...and considering that the total amount of devices in emerging markets and 3rd world countries are still low or well below capacity, especially in China, who's to say. Though I agree that tablets will over take PCs eventually, it will likely be due to the fact that we won' be able to draw a line anymore between the two...so maybe as the lines get closer together they just merge and not diverge... Just a thought though.

Forgive me for being flip but isn't this really a difference without a distinction? People are using these devices like they use PCs. They are adding keyboards and other peripherals to make them more productive, surfing the web, managing personal finances and playing games, all while paying to consume media. What will be seen as a subtle evolutionary change in the future isn't enough to call these things anything but what they are. Smaller form factor PCs. What makes this fun is having the choices we do in the devices. Back in the 80s we had Atari, Commodore, Sinclair, Activision, Apple, TI, IBM and others all vying for our PC dollar, and this reminds me of those heady days. Currently I use Android and Windows on a daily basis and if good ole Microsoft can pull RT off I'll have that as well in a few months. As for Microsoft being late to market, they usually wait for a quasi mature market and then jump in. Look at the GUI, word processing, Internet browsing,multi user, multi processing, now Jellybean and IOS6 are both usable and in comes Microsoft with the heavily integrated twins known as Windows 8 and Windows RT! If Jobs had done this it would be considered brilliant, but since it was Ballmer and company it must be a huge misstep. Yeah. Right. Who knows whose going to win? Not me. But I sure wouldn't count out Microsoft. A beautifully integrated pair of operating systems with a great deal of interoperability, designed for different hardware platforms running from tablets to ultra books to traditional desktops and closing in fast on the phone! This sounds like a company on the move and likely one that we should keep an eye on!

It's game over. iPads will rule the roost in terms of sales and profits by a huge margin. Just look at the iPad Air/Mini coming out before the Windows Surface tablet, with pricing and people actually getting to try it out. Microsoft is dead in this market. I can't believe they don't have working models for consumers to try or pricing yet. And look what's happening to the PC vendors. Dell and HP on their last legs, losing market share and profits. You gotta make money to stay alive and they aren't. If tablets are the future, Apple is king. Game. Set. Match.