Android is the New Windows

eh... android is basically the low end of mobile... yes you can spice it up with fancy specs on fancy devices... but it took 500 models of android phones released every year at every price to beat the iphone... in general consumer tablets it doesnt even chart... (nook is not true android) Win phone 8 will eventually end up second in market share behind android because it presents a standardized UI and platform ala iOS while eventually being available on multiple carriers, by multiple ODMs... its the best of both worlds... in the tablet space Win8/RT will be 2nd within a three year time horizon for the same reasons but will eventually eclipse ipad for the same reasons... multiple vendors and channels, multiple form factors to match the buyers needs, and the windows ecosystem(s) will mature and merge by this time next year... Android has a limited shelf life and at the low end of computing at that...

But why Android? Because it was the only thing available for smartphones and there were cheap options (cheaper than iPhone).

The problem for Android is there isn't a lot of user loyalty. The interface is pretty poor. I really think that Windows Phone market share will directly correlate to the WP maker's ability to get the retailers to push their devices. If retailers push it only 5% of the time, then WP market share will probably remain low. If they can get retailers to push it half the time then WP could have a chance at much higher market share.

I prefer the alternative, windows phone.

Re: Android is everthing:
I think the more accurate reading would be it's Samsung or Apple, there are no other viable Android competitors. Nexus phones have been a bust in spite of their superior features and upgradability.

In that light, I agree with Nokia's approach by focusing on their branding over the Windows Phone 8X approach done by HTC. No one will ask for a Windows Phone, they'll ask for a Nokia, to Microsoft's chagrin.

I don't buy the argument that Android is the low end by any means. Many Android OEM'S make some very well made, very well constructed devices on the market. All of the Nexus Line, the Samsung Galaxy Line, the Motorola Droid line, HTC One line & even the Sony Xperia line are some of the best made Android devices on the market.

The Windows analogy is very appropriate because it's like the early days of the PC. It didn't matter what your form factor was. Windows would work on it & people could do what they want with it. Windows remains a very malleable OS that handles what you throw at it. Android is the same way.

The problem with Windows Phone is that it unfortunately suffers from a marketing & perception problem. The stigma of Windows. The stigma of Windows XP, Windows Vista, & Windows Mobile reaches from beyond the grave to taint Windows Phone 8. Say what you will, but when normal people think of Windows? People outside of tech think a crash prone, malware infested, feature incomplete, & app deprived products. I know this is not true by any stretch of the imagination. However, the perception that Apple made with PC vs Mac has stayed with the general consumer. As long as Windows is attached to Windows Phone, I expect it not to go anywhere.

Say what you will about the Droid commercials? They were effective in saying, "We're the new challengers. Take no prisoners. Whatever iDon't, Droid Does." Leo Laporte was wrong about the Droid Commericals. They were very effective in conveying a phone that's different from the iPhone. Then Samsung stepped up & attacked the hipster perception of the iPhone. Samsung followed up by added your parents to the list of uncool people wanting an iPhone.

Microsoft is in a very bad position with Symbian, WebOS, & BlackBerry falling all around them in flames. Meanwhile Apple & Google have the top of the mountain peaks with the right position to take on anyone that tries to climb up, metaphorically speaking. It's not enough for Windows Phone 8 to be different. Microsoft has to match feature for feature & then surpass with many killer features everything that the iPhone & Android devices offer. Even that might be not enough to stop the the iOS & Android juggernaut because they've got market-share, momentum, mind-share, & word of mouth buzz.

Well, it is what it is. Android is where it is today, clearly because it offers the best ecosystem on the best hardware. Let's face it, when it comes to Search, Mail, Data, access to the Cloud, etc.... Google outshines Apple & Microsoft. All of that "data" is accessible in fairly less expensive on high quality phones such as Samsung, Motorola, HTC, Asus, etc....

Perhaps in a year Apple's market will shrink even further because of it's inability in innovate as fast as the other global Android phone manufacturers. Apple, simply put, is dead meat.

As for Microsoft Windows Phone, they simply don't get it. They don't know how to judge the market and how to conduct themselves as a business as such. They over-value their products and as such over-price them in the market. Not only that, but they are perennial late-comers to the game. LOL..the market is already established (for phones and tablets) and they think they can price their products comparably? I don't think so. It's this attitude by Microsoft that will ultimately lead (even to) the demise of Windows and Microsoft Office.

As a suspicious old codger who does not trust Google, I'm unable to buy into Android, regardless of market share, and regardless of the fact that new Android releases seem to be OK. I expect to keep my Lumia 900 until at least fall of 2013.

Apple's problem is there is only one option, for everything from computers, tablets and phones - APPLE.

Androids problem is defragmentation and too, too much selection and a not-loyal fan base. With them it is/was the only option other than the iPhone.

Most everyone I know that has had either the iPhone, a Droid or both and switched to a Windows phone have said there is no comparing either to the Windows Phone. But most are heavy hitting, power using business people, not the typical consumer.

What I would like to see is the same kind of negative press and disregard for android that Microsoft and Windows gets in the technosphere and forum-spaces...you know, being the new "top dog" and all. Then again, it is the champion product of those "free tech" Linux people. =/

My guess is, most phone buying decisions are driven by word of mouth, and sales representatives. The average consumer is unlikely to purchase a phone with an interface that looks so different from what all their friends and family have, and even less likely if the sales representative dismisses the product completely.

Windows Phone has to both increase marketing expenditures to get the word out and offer some unique features that appeal to consumers. I actually think that stuff like Kid's corner is the right approach - a feature that's easy to explain, easy to comprehend, and whose benefit is immediately appreciated. It just needs more of these!

10% for WP would probably be enough to solve the "new app release" developer interest/consumer awareness problem, which one would think would then be more than enough to push it over 10%.

It still just doesn't seem like normal non-tech consumers are buying android because they just love android...the version update numbers prove that.

I might agree with you Paul if the smartphone market was mature, but I don't see it that way at all. I see several upcoming business trends and technologies that could shake up the market in significant ways. I'm far from being resigned to the future ahead in mobile.

Android is strong in phone market but I wouldn't be surprised if it gains popularity in other devices as well; TVs, cars (IVI), etc. Android's one of the strong points is its flexibility.

I'm running Android on cheap ($35 - $125) ARM devices; Raspberry Pi, BeagleBoard-Mx and PandaBoard and soon on x86 hardware as well. It's possible to modify the whole stack from the bootloader to the top of UI layers which of course gives companies lots of possibilities. SDK works on many platforms what makes it very easy anyone to start write applications for it - for free if one is using Linux.

It's very interesting to see where Android and mobile OSs market shares are after - well, lets say - a year... but maybe even more interesting is to see what Jolla can do before that ;) [1]

[1] http://www.engadget.com/2012/10/04/jolla-confirms-first-sailfish-os-demo...

I went to T-Mobile tonight to see about upgrading 2 HTC HD7s which are at the end of their 2 year contracts. Because of my Family Value Plan, T-Mobile wanted $600 a piece for the new HTC 8X. I've been with them for 12 years and this was how they rewarded customer loyalty. I bought the last 2 HD7s for a whopping $99.00 on a buy one-get one free deal.
T-Mobile is history... and most likely Windows Phone 8...

Android's success in capturing marketshare has more to do with the fact it is pushed the most globally - by OEMs and by carriers. Microsoft can make Windows Phone the greatest OS on earth with the best catalogue of apps, you name it but that (alone) isn't going to eat into Android in any measurable way. If Microsoft wants to take down Android a little bit, then it needs to get the source of its actual success, market availability. This is a two-pronged approach that requires (1) to push Windows Phone as an OS available to all OEMs, just like Windows. However, in addition it requires (2) to limit Android by enticing OEMs to push less of them (and more of WP), and carriers to push more WP and less Android. Get the courts to force Google to charge licensing fees for Android, and/or make Windows Phone 8 available for free or very cheap to OEMs.

My opinion of similarities in the phone arena vs. dept stores:

Apple = Nordstroms
MSFT = Target
Android = Walmart

There's a place for all of them.

For mobile phone service, I chose to use one of the pre-paid service plans from MVNO (Mobile Virtual Network Operator) PlatinumTel, which rides on the Sprint network. My wife uses a similar company, PagePlus, which rides on the Verizon network. These are very low cost plans which appeal to the budget conscious among us (i.e. most people). Unfortunately, plans like these severely limit our phone choices due to contracts with the major carriers, so we ended up with Android phones. As an engineer, I prefer the openness and flexibility of Android over iOS.

I bring this up because I think there is this huge market of budget conscious people who prefer this type of no-contract, pre-paid, pay-as-you-go plan, and if Microsoft can aggressively exploit that market with Windows Phones, despite interference from major carriers, they can gain some serious market share.

As for Windows Phone OS, I think Microsoft dropped the ball a couple of times over the years by not providing a consistent, evolving OS and App distribution ecosystem that application developers can depend on and easily migrate from version to version, thus steadily building up the Application base, and consequently, Windows Phone market share.

WP8 looks like the beginning of such "consistency".
Is it too late to market? Time will tell.
Will MS keep it going over the long term, allow the application base to develop, and not drop it for something completely different? I hope so...