[Insert Year Here] is the Year of Desktop Linux (tm)

I used to do a regular comedy bit on the Internet Nexus blog every year about the amazing number of articles that popped up every year declaring that, seriously, this was the year of desktop Linux. Obviously, it never happened. Perhaps equally obviously, it's never going to happen. But those Linux guys. They do need to hope, and something to write about. Here's the latest example. And it's not even January yet.

This survey helps support the recent Forrester study, which found that Linux is becoming a credible threat to Windows on the desktop. Indeed, another recent desktop operating system survey, by KACE, a systems management appliance company, found that more Windows users are considering migrating to Mac OS and/or Linux (44 percent) than to Vista (13 percent).

What the survey failed to point out, of course, is that several hundred million Windows users will, in fact, migrate to Vista, regardless of what they're apparently thinking. And I'm here to tell you that they'll be pretty psyched about it when they do. There's a lot of wishful thinking in this article, but I think the truly relevant bit is as follows. And I'd point out that these results were found in a survey that was specifically aimed at people actually using Linux on the desktop.

In those businesses and organizations that have deployed Linux desktops, 39.5 percent are running Linux on more than half of their machines. Even in Linux-oriented groups, Windows remains the single most popular desktop system, with 59.6 percent running on half or more of their desktops.

So there you go. You can talk about what people intend to do all you want. But what people really do is run Windows. Even in the so-called Linux shops.  I'm sure that explains why the article is titled "Desktop Linux on the rise, Linux Foundation reports" instead of something more truthful like "Even Linux users use Windows."

Discuss this Article 10

DRWAM
on Nov 26, 2007
I first had no faith that my beloved Redhat workstation 3D imaging software could not be replaced, but I was wrong. GE rewrote the suite for XP and it now works great! It rendors CT and MRI arteriograms as well as other 3D stuff, but was a little rough at first. GE gave up trying to go full open platform with Linux, and all I can say is 'praise God'. Now our PACS [on XP] is fully integrated with the 3D AW suite and it's superfast. Life's good using one workstation for everything, Windows XP. I am sure that GE will take their good old time creating a Vista version. I'm young. I can wait.
RunTimeError
on Nov 26, 2007
"Perhaps equally obviously, it's never going to happen." What the hell kind of sentence is that?
chickens
on Nov 26, 2007
My problem with Linux is primarily in x11. To change nearly anything you have to spend hours tweaking with your configuration file. Then if you screw up you have to work from the command line. I ran Linux as my primary OS at home for over 3 years and then I got a Mac. I have no interest in going back. OS X gives me the power of UNIX without the unnecessary complexity. I've been a Windows admin for too long to run it as my primary OS anywhere besides work. When I go home I want to run a *NIX machine. I love the command line and I miss it when working with Windows. Even the power shell does not compare to bash in my opinion. That probably could be just me though.
cesjr
on Nov 26, 2007
Paul's probably right, but most big changes that occur are things that (1) nobody saw coming or (2) everyone predicted would never happen.
hzwei2000
on Nov 26, 2007
Indeed, although thankfully in this case: 1) somebody (quite a few actually) think they see it coming and 2) keep predicting it will happen... thereby perpetually ensuring that it will never happen. :-) I will say though that Ubuntu is solid if it weren't for the student discounts I was able to get on Vista and Office 2007 I would still be using it. It is significantly better than Windows Xp... though not as good as Vista.
benjwah
on Nov 26, 2007
I recently installed Ubuntu 7.1 on a dual-boot thingy with my XP machine after a 6 month hiatus of linux (I like trying it out every now and then). I actually think it's gotten worse. The last time I tried it before this (on an older machine), I managed to get codecs working, set up a XAMPP server, run PDF files, get necessary drivers. It's a Dell machine, and it (Ubuntu) says it supports ATI video cards, specifically mine (Radeon X1400), but if you try to do the automatic thing, it doesn't work. After that, you're in Ubuntu Forum "Help" territory, where the best they can do is offer you a crash course in re-writing drivers. Do Linux fiends actually think this OS is ready for anyone except those that really, really, really hate themselves?
Yawn!
on Nov 26, 2007
Paul's is right about this at least for 2008. ZD Net and the rest of the world now proclaim: 2008 is the year of XP (sp3). Oh well, I am still holding out for Vista (sp2). Yawn! Vista(sp2)
Sir_Timbit
on Nov 26, 2007
And yet, amazingly (?) Cnet put Vista in its Top ten terrible tech products http://crave.cnet.co.uk/gadgets/0,39029552,49293700-10,00.htm Windows Vista Any operating system that provokes a campaign for its predecessor's reintroduction deserves to be classed as terrible technology. Any operating system that quietly has a downgrade-to- previous-edition option introduced for PC makers deserves to be classed as terrible technology. Any operating system that takes six years of development but is instantly hated by hordes of PC professionals and enthusiasts deserves to be classed as terrible technology. Windows Vista conforms to all of the above. Its incompatibility with hardware, its obsessive requirement of human interaction to clear security dialogue box warnings and its abusive use of hated DRM, not to mention its general pointlessness as an upgrade, are just some examples of why this expensive operating system earns the final place in our terrible tech list.
Mum
on Nov 26, 2007
"But those Linux guys." There. I skimmed the article (Paul's bits) of everything I didn't consider "journalism".
Dipsh t Admin
on Nov 27, 2007
It is obvious that this is not the year of desktop Linux, and it really won't happen for quite some time, if ever. Outside of some very nice improvements and high profile OEM support, it still caters only to the techie market. I've never run it, but I have thought of using it for some time. But whoever expects the average Joe to be able to deal with Linux is just living in a fantasy world.

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