iPhone 3G does not capture 17 percent of the US market for cell phones

It’s interesting to me how people contort Apple market share figures to make them look better than they really are. If Apple’s market share of, say, the PC industry isn’t high enough, we’ll just use the US figures without mentioning that’s what happening. Still not high enough? We’ll use a nebulous and pretty-much-made-up figure about, say, notebook sales. Still not good enough: OK, US notebook sales to consumers, only in retail stores. Eventually, Apple will appear to dominate the PC industry. It’s fun.

And it’s happening with the iPhone now as well. Today, for example, we learn that the iPhone 3G is 17% of US smart phone market. That’s one in six out of every smart phone sold in the US, people. One in six!

Except, of course, that it isn’t. Here’s how it was reported:

The iPhone outsold the BlackBerry Curve, BlackBerry Pearl and Palm Centro in the June through August window and used the spike generated by the launch to give all iPhones about 17 percent of the US smart phone business from January through August, or more than one in six smart phones sold in the country.

The figures are targeted at typical sales, however, and don't include corporate sales that often favor BlackBerries and Windows Mobile devices in the US

Woah, woah. “Typical sales”? Doesn’t include corporate sales that “often favor” other devices? LOL.

So this is just like Mac market share, in other words. It’s a subset of a subset of a market, picked to make the picture look even rosier than it really is. It’s US sales of smart phones to consumers over the counter at retail locations only, not “US sales of smart phones.” Most smart phones are sold to business users, not consumers, incidentally. And that means that “typical” smart phone sales are corporate sales, not consumer sales. This whole thing is a crock.

Now before any of you Apple boys get your panties all twisted up in a bunch, let me remind you that I use, enjoy, and recommend the iPhone. It’s a great device, and arguably the nicest smart phone available for consumers today. No doubt about it. But this isn’t about my personal preferences, or some bizarre need by the press to continually inflate Apple’s very real successes. The iPhone’s doing great. And it’s opening up a consumer market for smart phones. That’s the real story here.

But this story has now been misreported and will be widely broadcast as truth. That 17 percent figure is representative of only a very small portion of the overall smart phone market. It’s just not true.

 

UPDATE: I noted above that Apple is “opening up a consumer market for smart phones.” Turns out that Apple’s not even the number one seller of consumer-oriented smart phones sold via retail in the US. RIM is. And this is according to NPD, the same folks that generated the report that caused the story linked above. So a more accurate statement might be that “Apple is contributing to the opening up of a consumer market for smart phones.”

Apparently, even I give Apple more credit than they deserve. See how easy it is?

Discuss this Article 73

shark47
on Oct 7, 2008
By the way, I think Microsoft will end up buying RIM if it cannot get WM7 out on time. Of course, that depends on market conditions too, but I have a feeling that Microsoft will end up buying someone.
Master3
on Oct 7, 2008
"Oh... and that video is such a hilarious failure. My god. Whoever made that has absolutely no taste or sense of film production whatsoever. It's like a time-machine to video of the 1980s. Utterly unwatchable and embarrassing." So you are one of those clueless people that actually thought this was made to be anything other than being silly? Wow.
shark47
on Oct 7, 2008
Slightly OT and probably more relevant, why dows Apple's software suck on Windows? There's a huge difference between the performance of iTunes on Windows and OS X. The ZDNet hardware guy and frequent MS critic, Adrian Kingsley also found the performance of Quicktime to be poor on a Windows PC. http://blogs.zdnet.com/hardware/?p=2693 This is not meant as a flamebait but considering that a large percentage of their customer base is Windows users, can't they treat them better? And I speak as a consumer here. There's a huge difference between the performance of iTunes and Zune on my Windows PC. And coverflow on my iTouch is much more fluid.
chuckb84
on Oct 7, 2008
Shark, "There's a huge difference between the performance of iTunes on Windows and OS X. The ZDNet hardware guy and frequent MS critic, Adrian Kingsley also found the performance of Quicktime to be poor on a Windows PC. blogs.zdnet.com/hardware This is not meant as a flamebait but considering that a large percentage of their customer base is Windows users, can't they treat them better?" Odd that you would bring this up, as there is a long discussion on macintouch about how pathetically slow Office 2008 for Mac is compared with Office 2007 on Windows. You'll like this: Apparently some people run Parallesl/WInXP/Office2007 on a Mac to get decent performance from the office suite. Microsoft won't ever make Office on the Mac any more than "good enough", and I expect Apple will act the same on iTunes for Windows. The situations aren't exactly analogous, because a much larger percentage of the iTunes users are on Windows than the corresponding fraction of Office users who are on Mac. Nonetheless, the corporate behavior---which is the basic complaint in both instances---is the same. I don't know how to change this behavior except not to use their products (Apple or Microsoft, take your pick) when they are obnoxious. Purely by accident the latest release candidate of Open Office is downloading as a type this :)
bettieblu
on Oct 7, 2008
http://blogs.eweek.com/applewatch/content/channel/offices_big_mac_sales.... 25% of over all Office sales are to Mac owners, as is the Mac version that nothing to brush off. However I would be that 60% or more of iTunes users are Windows users. For Mac Users itunes probably is 99% of what they use? There are more options on Windows. Why not make the Zune software for Mac's? Office 2008 when it shipped was UNGODLY slow. Word would take 28 seconds to open on my 2.2ghz core 2 duo, 4gig of RAM macbook. Word 2004 about half that, and pages in iWork takes about 5 seconds. Word 2008 is now at version 12.1.2 after several 100-300 meg updates and is much faster it opens now in about 10 seconds, even less after the first time.
bettieblu
on Oct 7, 2008
@DRWAM I think Apple will lower the price of the entry level Macbook down to below $1000 if the rumors are true. From what I read they warned shareholders last quarter that in the sep-oct time frame they were going to do something that would reduce revenues but grow sales. From the rumors the new Macbook are going be aluminum as well and that the whole notebook like will resemble the Macbook air in basic shape (rounded corners) Almost like the new iPhone/iTouch. If things get much worse in the economy especially for consumers, Apple will take a huge hit since they are a consumer oriented company.
subzerohitman721
on Oct 7, 2008
bettieblu stated: "The NPD Group publish their statistics and that gets spun to mean that Apple fans or indeed the Apple marketing department are responsible. What is wrong with you people?" While the NPD Group is a pretty good measure of whats going on, however their focus is mostly North America. Thats only one measure of how an entire industry works. North America is not the whole world. To just go blindly with one organization's collection of numbers from a few retailers is deceptive. There are other market research groups that use other metrics to gage how well an industry is doing. So yes, many people including myself don't just go with one groups numbers. To get a more complete picture of an industry, we need input from several different points of view. You are so eager to pump up Apple's number's, yet you forget Apple just came into the cell phone business. Have they done well? Obviously yes. However, NPD should be taken as one factor, along with other demographics, and consumer input to gage put the numbers in their proper prospective.
shark47
on Oct 7, 2008
chuck, regarding Office for Mac, it's not odd that I didn't mention it. I don't know about its performance. "Why not make the Zune software for Mac's?" Do you really want an answer to that question? People keep bringing this up. How many people do you think will go out and buy a Zune if the software is made available for OS X too? Very, very few. So, people can go ahead and make this all about how evil Microsoft is. The truth is, Zune has barely 2% of the market when it's made available to 90+% of computer users out there. Do you think making it available to Mac users will drive up sales? It's not even worth the effort. People, this is not tit for tat or an eye for an eye. The fact that Office for Mac is buggy or slow in no way justifies Apple ignoring PC users.
mikegalos@msn.com
on Oct 7, 2008
bettieblu Mac Office RETAIL sales are a big part of Office RETAIL sales because Apple doesn't offer Office with their computers. Most Windows users who want Office get it at an OEM discount with their computer so they don't have to buy it at RETAIL. Apparently, the only thing Apple wants you to buy that they don't make is a Canon PIXMA photo printer. As for making Zune for Mac, why? Apple users are a single digit part of the market and are notorious about only buying Apple Brand products when there's one available. And, of course, there are all those Mac users following Steve Jobs advice and running Windows Vista so it isn't an issue for them.So, Microsoft should make Zune software for the tiny subset of the tiny subset of the tiny subset? That's a pretty silly business case.
Ocean
on Oct 7, 2008
>>why dows Apple's software suck on Windows?<< It doesn't...at least not on mine.
bettieblu
on Oct 7, 2008
IMHO Macs are never going to grow beyond 20%, so if I were running MS, IE, Office as good as 2007 wit a full Outlook, Visio, Zune etc make it all run on a Mac, its just more sales. While I think Macs wont go past 20% the wont shrink either, IMO. I am sure I could retire on 25% of the annual Office sales tomorrow if I had that money. Honestly I dont know where people get Office on home PC's. I think its probably the most pirated software there is, and Windows XP is next.
bettieblu
on Oct 7, 2008
@subzero ummm your quoting the wrong person. I never said a thing about NPD Group.
MaryW
on Oct 7, 2008
@subzero And there you go! You did it again. Twice! "While the NPD Group is a pretty good measure of whats going on, however their focus is mostly North America." Did you read Paul's complaints about the US MARKET? Did you read the linked articles concerning the US MARKET? Did you even read the headline? "To just go blindly with one organization's collection of numbers from a few retailers is deceptive." Well we had better put an embargo on any and ALL the information until you can furnish us with the REAL figures. "You are so eager to pump up Apple's number's, " What is it that you are so worried about Sub? Did you see me 'pump' ? I don't care if NPD's iPhone figures are 17%... 7% .... or 27%.
shark47
on Oct 7, 2008
"It doesn't...at least not on mine." Maybe you should mail Ed Bott and tell him that. He'd like to know what you're running. Of course, your definition of 'suck' might be different too, which might be more likely. So, in your case, is it Windows that sucks?
shark47
on Oct 7, 2008
BTW, Ballmer talking about selling 20 mn WM7 phones is a lie only if you define all forecasts as lies (which they are). I don't think you need a demand planner to tell you all forecasts are wrong. There are so many factors that affect sales. The demand planner attempts to capture most of them, but there might be this one delay that may have a huge impact on sales and wasn't captured in the forecast. Does this mean they were lying? Does this mean they were "evil"?
mikegalos@msn.com
on Oct 7, 2008
Bettieblu (sigh) OK. Let's run the numbers again... Macintosh is 3.5% of the world market. (not 20%, not 25%) Mac users typically buy Apple products if available. Many Mac users (with Steve Jobs encouragement) run Windows on their Mac hardware. So, let's say that 10% of Mac users would buy a Zune. (probably way, way too high seeing the popularity of the iPod and the likely scorn from fellow Macheads for owning a Zune) Now, let's say that only 1/4 of them run Windows via Bootcamp or Parallels or VMWare That's leaves 7.5% of 3.5% of the market that would be the audience for MacZune. That's roughly 0.26% of the market. Kind of hard to base a business model with a full dev team and support infrastructure for what's at best a miniscule market. As for IE, Microsoft had IE for Mac until Apple decided they wanted to get into the browser business. As for Office, that seems to be doing fine as is by your own posting. Why change it? But Mac users will be welcome in the Live Mesh party!
bettieblu
on Oct 8, 2008
What would take to get Zune on the Mac? A ported version of the Zune software which for the largest software company in the world you would think rather trivial. None of the back end would have to change. How many lines of code make up the Zune desktop software? I would think on a scale of 1-10 rating the complexity of software, the Zune desktop software is what a 3? Compare it to Word that is probably 5 times the lines of code and probably a 7 on a scale of 1-10. The point being it would not be hard and it would give MS the ability to say its available on more than just Windows, like iTunes is and give them a bump in the public perception arena. I dont think the Zune will be a serious challenge until they have something to compete with the iTouch. Hard drive MP3 players will be gone in 2 years max and devices that play games and display video well will become more and more popular especially as prices come down.
Dipsh t Admin
on Oct 8, 2008
John, good to see you back! I haven't been posting as much as I used to either for various reasons. However, I have to wonder about your umbrage towards Paul about his speaking about insignificant web sites, by commenting on, in your opinion, an insignificant web site. At the end of the day, a little less worrying by everyone will help stave off what is currently a panic, which you certainly seem to be doing. Me thinks you might have been invested heavily in a certain Cupertino company that has not fared well in the current economic climate. Besides, while Paul does go in many different directions on this site, this is a technology blog. I don't come here to read depressing financial news, rather to get away from it. Should Paul impose a moratorium on posting just because of world events?
DRWAM
on Oct 8, 2008
MIke and bettie, don't forget the typical included MS Works on most retail computers. Today's version is pretty darn good, excluding Outlook and PowerPoint, but a PwerPoint viewer is installed. Most home users [and possibly business users] needs are met by te free Works. The cheapo $400 ACER has it and that's reallly all my family needs. I did experience a few hangups/slowdowns, with IE 7 on ACER"S web site, so I cannot call it a crash as it may just be the web site, and many other sites worked, but I'll comment more when I test more. It's not fair to condemn/accuse without real data.
Waethorn
on Oct 8, 2008
@Doc: It's not just you. Acer's Flash site is horribly slow.
gorath
on Oct 8, 2008
bettieblu, I really hope that there will be music players available for years to come that are just that, music players. It annoys me that I can buy the same quality, same capacity mp3 player now, for the same price as the same capacity would have cost me 3 years ago. The only difference is that it now plays video, games etc etc. I don;t WANT any of that, I just want it to play more music, and I'd like to see massive increases in capacity as the years roll on, rather than feature cramming. I absolutely loathe watching video on one of those stupid little screens.
subzerohitman721
on Oct 8, 2008
Okay, the stress of two sick children is getting to me. Doctor trips, losing sleep, and trying to work a night job. A big whole hearted Mea Culpa to Mary W and Bettieblu. Apologies to both and everyone. I am in desperate need of a vacation and sleep. However, I do stand by my comments about NPD as being the single and solitary source of information on the iPhone. Its a decent metric. However, this isn't telling us the whole story. I believe this is what Paul is trying to say. I"m actually agreeing with him whole heartedly. I truely believe the iPhone isn't such a big consumer grab as some people on here are making it.
johnpapola
on Oct 8, 2008
@Dip, Thanks for missing me ;) I was just dipping my toes in and found it lame and sad that Paul is still playing the same marketshare games. When is this broken record going to be taken off the player? I own no stock in Apple or any other company outside of the funds in my 401K, thank god. Let me bring my "umbrage" back to something constructive for the discussion while tying in some of the real world. Is Paul's criticism of this silly gadget blog fair? Yes. Does the fact that he felt compelled to blog about it out of context of his other posts point to his weirdo biases? Absolutely. This all goes back to Paul's ideological obsession with marketshare as a metric that has meaning, while not being able or willing to define what the meaning is. He's entitled to his obsessive ignorance. I just find it silly, especially now. Part of the reason Fannie and Freddie took riskier and riskier mortgages onto their balance sheets was a pursuit of marketshare. They saw that wall street investment banks were getting all this rich margin on sub-prime mortgages that they only were willing to take on because the housing market was rising and they hadn't been in the lending business through a market decline. So Fannie and Freddie felt pressure to compete for marketshare. That pursuit put them in grave danger as we all now know. I'm going to guess that most of you AND Paul have not noticed or read the Wharton business school whitepaper that utterly debunks pursuit of marketshare as a sound business strategy. I've linked to it many times. Here it is one more: http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/papers/1332.pdf "But this story has now been misreported and will be widely broadcast as truth." - paul This is the other classic thurott-ism here. The generalization made from a specific failure. Paul uses his own bias to filter the news about Apple then he tries to act as if it's not a filter. If Paul wants to demonstrate that this is a widespread and growing meme across the media, he should link to all the stories running with it. Maybe he's right. But without any effort or evidence, it's just bogus attempt to paint the world with his broad brush. Everyone do yourself a favor and read that Wharton study. It's not theory. It's a real study of real companies that killed their businesses by destroying their margins in the name of marketshare instead of focusing on profit and long-term sustainability.

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