It's true: Windows is caught between Mac and Linux

I guess it's all in how you look at it. Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols provides the following bit of time killer over on Desktop Linux, which I'm guessing is one of the lonelier Web destinations these days:

For the first time in ages, the sale of new PCs with Windows as a percentage of the PC market is declining sharply. The new winner is the Mac, but, while no one does a good job of tracking the still-new, pre-installed Linux desktop market, it's also clear that Linux is finally making impressive inroads into Windows' once unchallenged market share.

I see two strong trends here. On the high end, people are buying Macs instead of Windows PC. On the low end, Linux is eating Windows alive.

Windows finds itself being confined to the middle ground.

As proof, he cites the US-only, retail-only NPD numbers that made the rounds this week on all the Mac fanatic sites, and "empirical evidence makes it clear that Linux desktops are moving into customers' hands at a quick pace." I feel that neither of these is particularly relevant from a wider trend perspective, but I do like the concept of Windows being "caught between Mac and Linux." So much, in fact, that I graphed it with Excel, using actual, real-world market share figures from calendar year 2007. And when you do this, here's what you get, ladies and gentlemen. I present: Windows, caught between Mac and Linux:

Chicken Little, your time has come.

Discuss this Article 53

Avro
on Mar 27, 2008
@Waethorn I paid £440 for my 2nd Gen MacBook in July and it had a far better spec than any Windows laptop for the same price. @subhitzero 1.Your facts are lacking. From the way you write, I don't think you have ever used Linux. Ubuntu comes with Office, will run CDs and DVDs. Both Ubuntu and Suse come with loads of applications that run right away and best of all they are free. Who needs Bluray? Who rents DVDs these days? A technology that might hit 1% sometime. Who needs to search around for Windows drivers.? A friend is still trying to get his scanner to run with Vista (after 6 months). It runs fine with Ubuntu. The Linux kernel is updated and the drivers are provided with each update. As far as living in a capitalist society goes most Windows customers in Africa, Asia, and Eastern Europe (where a heck of a lot of that 96% figure comes from) most patently do not. I am not quite sure how the 1% Linux figure was arrived at. Perhaps it is only 1% of sales. Given the fact that most Linux users are people with Windows machines and loaded Linux to get away from it could mean the figures are a lot higher. 2. You forget to mention that the amount of choice Linux offers users have may dismay Windows users who end up with apps that are not really very good -buggy, bloated MS Office, buggy vulnerable IE 7. Apps made for the office not the Home User. As far as vulnerabilities go, most Windows problems have been around for years and people are just finding more ways of exploiting them. New versions of Linux and OS X do have vulnerabilities but they patched very quickly, sometimes in the same day. Microsoft takes an age to fix anything, 15 months for Vista SP1. One of the reasons that Microsoft has never taken security seriously is that most of its customers operate on closed corporate internets. A very different situation than that of Mac and Linux Home Users. Exactly why would you need someone to fix your Linux machine? You should be able to do it yourself. When a Linux computer is set-up rarely does anything go wrong and advice is free and easy to get. Anybody with the vaguest of knowledge seems to call themselves a Windows repairman. My mum in Canada uses her Dell for some very basic computing. It is just over a year old and she has spent $500 getting a Windows 'expert' to fix it and yet it lets her down all the time. My best friend in Liverpool has a year old Dell and took it in when it slowed to a crawl. He spent £100 getting it tuned up, had to take it back again because the tune-up did not work. The computer shop said with Windows a yearly service was necessary to keep it performing. ££££ 3. Most of the info on Windows fix-it sites is terrible and you see people come back and back again with the same problem. The Linux forums give excellent advice and I rarely see comebacks even from newbies. A problem with the Microsoft guys is they are arrogant, 'we're the only game in town use a Mac or Linux and you will never send an email or write a letter again'. Get a refund? Ever hear of Windows Me? The Vista capable scandal? Where was the accountability there? One of the reasons put about that Microsoft would not release the code for Windows is because it would prove embarrassing. Codeheads would be amazed that it even worked at all. 4. Money is an incredibly poor motivator. Most of the really good useful software is developed by 5 people or less. Microsoft generally produces pretty lame stuff for corporate America. Compare Word with something like Scrivener. 5. Actually the Windows Wizards are a pain in the neck, take too long and mask what is really going on. By setting things up yourself Mac and Linux users gain some understanding of how things work. Paul has even mentioned how OS X is for more a of technical user than Windows, that the bar of entry is higher. I think you must have consulted T-Rex with your figures. 40% of new Freshman are showing up with MacBooks at college and Macs now have 14% of the US market. The Mac share is expected to double over the next two years. I am sure that Mr Low in Beijing would think your figures were right (for China) http://arstechnica.com/journals/apple.ars/2008/03/26/mac-sales-rising-in... 6.Actually Windows has been playing catch-up with Macs for years and yes Linux does have a Mac theme too. You can get a Mac theme for Windows if you want also. 7. FOSS is very important for emerging economies. It allows them to develop their own IT industry and localize software. There is money to be made there though. Citroen has just bought 20,000 Linux computers, Google uses FOSS, Yahoo uses FOSS. I work for two organisations with over 100,000 employees and we are looking and looking soon at switching to Linux. Comes down to dollars and cents. One business found that for the price of one MS licence he could get Linux and retrain his 50 employees. It saved him a great deal of money. Corporate Satisfaction rates: OS X 53% Linux 44% XP 40% Vista 8% http://blog.changewave.com/2008/03/pc_spending_heads_south.html
subzerohitman721
on Mar 27, 2008
One thing thats important to remember is who ultimately drives the consumer market. The corporations all have computer networks. All of them have Microsoft contracts that they aren't going to give up. All of them are going to start up dating to Vista in 2009 when they do their annual updates. Then the whole consumer market will switch over because all of their work related applications will require a Vista machine. As far as Avro arguments goes, you've obviously have no idea about me or the real world around us. I have used various different variants of Linux. And I'm speaking as the devil's advocate. For the average joe who doesn't want to bother with all the time consuming headaches that is Linux. You can spout all your philosphies about Linux, the bottom line is that it doesn't make a damn of difference. Corporations will adopt Vista in 09. The consumers will follow. The biggest one will be Bank of America. Why? 1. My facts are not lacking. I'm talking from users who just recently used Ubuntu 7.04 and could not use their iPods. Who could not adapt their Microsoft Office documents over. Who couldn't run any of their music because all the Ubuntu applications disk didn't have a music player that could play those files. Perhaps its you who don't know your product as expertly as your philosophy says. A test group done here in Dallas couldn't get rid of Linux fast enough. Also one of the PC companies who did computers for Dallas ISD also experimented with Red Hat Linux. Again, even with all your "message boards" and documentation, the out of the box experience for the average joe was rated very low. 2. Buggy and vunerable? Firefox right now has a critical vunerability! Of the vunerabilities in browsers, right now Internet Explorer 7.0 for this year has 2! Firefox has 3! Second, Office has code bloat? Don't you mean OpenOffice.org? Right now the critics are severely critizing OpenOffice.org specifically because of code bloat! Fact, OpenOffice.org criticized for slow start times and extensive CPU and RAM usage in comparison to other competitive software such as Microsoft Office. In comparison, tests between OpenOffice.org 2.2 and Microsoft Office 2007 have found that OpenOffice.org takes approximately 2 times the processing time and memory to load an application itself along with a blank file; and took approximately 4.7 times the processing time and 3.9 times the memory to open an extremely large spreadsheet file. The source? George Ou of zdnet.com. How can you even claim to know anything about Linux when its been widely reported that OpenOffice.org doesn't run upto MS Office speed? Do you just make this stuff as you go? 3. Accountability? Its called the United States v. Microsoft! Thats right. They went to court and Microsoft had to answer to the federal government. So when Linux quite literally ripped off the Windows Interface who did Linux have to answer to? Microsoft attorneys in a federal court. No more Lindows. And you say Linux is not Microsoft? How about today where Red Hat is selling subscriptions for Red Hat Linux? Where is the free software? Sounds like they are making a good profit off you Linux boys. One way or another, you have to pony up the cash. Whether it goes to Redmond, Washington or Raleigh, North Carolina, we all end up paying someone for our OS. When you guys need the tech support! As for your comment on Windows fix it sites, they have helped keep my Windows systems running well since 1997! They have helped millions of computer users find what they need without calling a technician. See most of us humble Windows users aren't the idiots you guys paint us as. Yes, we do tweak and make registry changes on a regular basis. No, we aren't absolute fools and obviously, if Linux was really that good, it have greater marketshare. (And since computer servers keep track of the OS that most people use, along with PC sales, OS sales, and polling.... Thats how it has been determined that 96 percent of the world desktop market uses Windows. Yet you claim to know everything about Linux but you don't know how we keep track of OS marketshares?) 4. Money is a poor motivator? Really, then how the heck do you have a home, food, clothing, transportation, and the money to afford the computer your typing on? Why don't you ask all those guys in college studying? Why don't you ask that homeless guy sleeping under a bench somewhere and ask him if money is a poor motivator. Why don't you ask Bill Gates if Money is a poor motivator? Wars have been fought over money, natural resources, or anything that can be bought or sold for currency. Are you paying attention to the whole Iraq debacle? All that really has to do with oil and money. Over 4,000 American lives lost because of greed and a president not held accountable. And you say money is a poor motivator. 4. Its funny how you spin things. That means 60% of college freshmen are using Windows. Also, as far as Mac Market share goes, your statistics of 14 percent is Mac fanboy spin. Currently based on current market information as of February 2008, Microsoft at the most has 7.46 percent of the U.S market and 2.87% of the world market as Paul has reported. Don't try bring that Spin like Bill O'Reilly, because I'll be the Keith Obermann to call you on the spin. 6. Everyone knows about the Mac themed for Linux. Yawn. 7. The problem with FOSS is that companies like Red Hat shatter the illusion that its all free. You need money to run this empire or al that web space and computers that run Linux would simply not have the power to be operating. Unless market economics radically changes, you still need cash. This is completely contrary to the FOSS theory. Just like the theories of the JFK assassination, the evidence just doesn't hold water to the facts. Show me a Linux company that doesn't use a single penny in its organization to run, operate, pay bills, or pay employees?? Without having a real job to cover the expenses of running and maintaining a computer, and somewhere a great crime is being committed. Bottom line, nice try with the spin, but it doesn't hold a candle to the factual truth. You are no different than the Republican conservatives spinning on that Fixed Noise channel known as Fox News. Next time, bring me facts, not just spin. Next topic, PLEASE!
Avro
on Mar 27, 2008
There is an interesting experiment: If noxious fumes invade a workspace and one person is there they will raise the alarm, if the same thing is done with a group of actors continuing to work the real employee will do nothing. Did I ever mention Red Hat? Office 2008 is pretty terrible. When Gates makes a speech promising various forms of Vapourware (CES 2008 same promises as CES 2007 but no results). That is why people listen to Steve Jobs when he does a keynote rather than Bill Gates. Jobs wants to change the way you think, Gates wants your money. Money is a poor motivator for doing things WELL. Enterprise will give Vista a miss. http://www.microsoft-watch.com/content/vista/eweek_survey_vista_gimme_xp... Read and weep. Customer satisfaction for Vista 15% Customer satisfaction for Leopard 81% Those are the real figures that count. Nothing but the best

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