Microsoft's Woes Can't Be Blamed on Vista

So, I agree with this. But you can’t fight perception. And in the eyes of much of the world, Vista is as tainted as Windows Me or Microsoft Bob. And that’s a shame. Because anyone getting excited over Windows 7 needs to understand that that OS is, in fact, Windows Vista 1.1. Which is fine. But it will always be amazing to me how people can respond to the same basic thing differently when you simply rename it (Mojave) or rejigger it in fairly minor ways (Windows 7). Anyhoo…

Microsoft's lousy Q2 is due to economic turmoil and flagging PC sales

Here's why I'm telling you this: Some analysts and even a news story here at Infoworld.com are blaming Vista for Microsoft's crummy second quarter and subsequent layoffs.

As much as I wish the folks in Redmond had done a better job building that dog of an OS -- and let us keep XP -- Vista is not to blame. As Bill Clinton used to say, it's the economy, stupid.

Sales aren't off because buyers don't like Vista. Although I usually stay away from generalizing much from my personal experiences in the technology market, in this case, I'd say that my decision not to buy a new PC is probably right in line with that of many other non-buyers. Money is tight these days, and the flavor of the OS has nothing to do with it. Indeed, Mac sales are off as well, and we don't hear lots of complaints about OS X.

Having said that, I believe that if Vista had been a more successful product, PC sales would have been stronger soon after the OS debuted a few years ago. But had that sales surge come about, it would have flattened out by now.

The overall math is simple. Sales in the client division, which includes Windows, were off 8.1 percent while sales in the business division, which includes Office, were up just a bit: 1.3 percent. And since Windows and Office are the company cash cows, the quarter stank.

See the numbers for yourself.

There’s more, about netbooks mostly, and it’s all pretty obvious, but worth reading. Check it out.

Discuss this Article 33

darkmax
on Jan 28, 2009
People who make comments like this, are either ignorant or just simply do not understand market dynamics and economies.
kenmcnamee
on Jan 28, 2009
One of the worst aspects of modern culture is that perception becomes reality and most people simply follow the herd rather than make up their own mind about something. So many lemmings only think Vista is "bad" because they've heard it from someone else who heard it from someone else and none of those "someone elses" probably ever used Vista. Now Vista was bad initlally - until the hardware driver makers finally got their act together in Vista's first year on the market. Since that time, and especially since SP1, Vista has been a fabulous OS. That said, Windows 7 is definitely better but 95% of Windows 7's greatness can be directly attributed to the work that into Vista.
lotsamystuff
on Jan 28, 2009
"Money is tight these days, and the flavor of the OS has nothing to do with it. Indeed, Mac sales are off as well, and we don't hear lots of complaints about OS X." Mac sales are not "off". Apple Inc. just had a record quarter, wiht nine percent quarter-over quarter unit growth. Since Paul will never point out this inaccuracy, allow me to help: http://preview.tinyurl.com/c7al6c "Apple sold 2.5 million Macintosh computers during the quarter for a nine percent unit growth over the 2007 quarter. It was the MacBook, which got a major refresh last October, that carried the day, rising 34 percent over 2007 sales to 1.8 million units sold, or 72 percent of all of Apple's computer sales. "Desktop unit sales were down 25 percent year over year, but Oppenheimer noted that 2007 growth was up a notable 53 percent from the prior year thanks to the introduction of new models."
Avro
on Jan 28, 2009
'Mac sales are off as well, and we don't hear lots of complaints about OS X.' Paul's maths are a bit dodgy. Mac sales this Qtr were up about 10%. Mac sales Q1 2009 2.58 m units 2008 2.31 m units Source Apple SEC filings http://blogs.eweek.com/applewatch/content/corporate/apple_q1_2009_by_the...
Delmont
on Jan 28, 2009
Just more of the liberal media driving the news and the news/facts no longer driving the media. But hey....here comes the Train Change!
tayme
on Jan 28, 2009
Keep in mind that Bill Snyder of InfoWorld wrote the article that Paul linked to...not Paul. Although the quote about Mac sales is entirely wrong and should be pointed out as such. At least we know who is reading the articles that are quoted. --tayme
kenmcnamee
on Jan 28, 2009
For the record, it wasn't Paul that said Mac sales are down, it was Bill Snyder at InfoWorld. The point of the article is that Microsoft had a bad quarter not because people don't like Vista but because people aren't buying as many computers due to the economy.
Avro
on Jan 28, 2009
Sorry my mistake. Quotations would help but Paul did indent it!! I think there is much to agree with here. Businesses and consumers are putting off purchases and it seems that Vista gets blamed for everything but the bad weather. Mac sales are up, but they are a niche market that doesn't go up and down with the economy as much.
whiplash55
on Jan 28, 2009
I think the netbook is also an issue with MS revenue. While XP quickly kicked Linux to the curb in netbook sales once it became available I believe the license fees are quite a bit less than for Vista.
subzerohitman721
on Jan 28, 2009
@ Avro and lotsa, Macs overall are growing, but the desktop sales of Macintosh's are down. http://www.macworld.com/article/138362/earnings.html "However, Apple also reported a steep decline in desktop sales, which fell to 728,000 units from 977,000 in the year-ago quarter." 977,000 - 728,000 = 249,000 loss from 2008. Desktops sales are sliding following the trend of the PC industry. Thats what Paul and Bill Snyder were talking about Mac sales were off. As for the article, this could have been shrunk down to two words... Global Recession. Enough said. Even Microsoft or Apple isn't immune to it. The drop in desktop sales is consistent with the entire industry.
Victek
on Jan 28, 2009
I think Vista is perceived so negatively because it has no "killer app". Every version of Windows up to XP was so much better than the previous one that people were willing to put up with the cost and hassle of upgrading, and not complain about the learning curve. Finally with XP the capabilities of 32 bit computing were realized and even after nine years most people don't need more. The 4 GB ram ceiling of x86 has only recently started to become a limitation motivating a small percentage of users to move to x64. It may take a few more years before 4 GB is perceived as an unacceptable limit. What would help is for ID Software to come out with Doom x64 which will require 8 GB on Vista x64 - people will be falling all over themselves to upgrade :-)
Ocean
on Jan 28, 2009
Campaign calls on Microsoft to release Windows 7 right now http://www.techflash.com/microsoft/Campaign_Release_Windows_7_Now3853330... Shark, as long as Macs overall are growing, Apple is a happy camper.
lotsamystuff
on Jan 28, 2009
"Thats what Paul and Bill Snyder were talking about Mac sales were off." Precision in reporting is important. Snyder was wrong, and Paul failed to point it out. Had this been a misstatement about Microsoft, you can bet he'd have been all over it, probably with a headline article calling Snyder some kind of name. Regardless, I'm simply pointing out the error so people won't be confused. No harm, no foul.
weedmonk
on Jan 28, 2009
If you agree with it then you should correct Leo . I sense that there's a general movement to entomb Vista as being a complete dog while it clear wasn't Perceptions or not if you concede that then you invariably walk right into the iCabal talking point Win7=Vista.
gorath
on Jan 28, 2009
" What would help is for ID Software to come out with Doom x64 which will require 8 GB on Vista x64 - people will be falling all over themselves to upgrade :-)" haha! so very true!
Avro
on Jan 28, 2009
@subzerohitma I think you might be adding 2+2 and coming up with 7.5 3 possible reasons for the decline in Mac desktops: 1.iMac, Mac Pro and Mac mini lines are expecting new models in the next couple months. People may be waiting for the new model which many thought might have been introduced before Christmas. They were not released then and people are still waiting. 2.It could represent a major shift to laptops. 3.It could reflect economic conditions as you suggest. I think Number 1 is most likely with a bit of Number 2. If it was the economy (Number 3) I would expect to see a drop across the board in both desktops and laptops.
Waethorn
on Jan 28, 2009
"What would help is for ID Software to come out with Doom x64 which will require 8 GB on Vista x64 - people will be falling all over themselves to upgrade" After the disaster that was Doom 3, I'd hope that people were a little smarter than that. ID Software is a has-been.
chuckb84
on Jan 28, 2009
"Perceptions or not if you concede that then you invariably walk right into the iCabal talking point Win7=Vista." Interesting. Since Paul said, " anyone getting excited over Windows 7 needs to understand that that OS is, in fact, Windows Vista 1.1" I think you just made Paul part of the iCabal. Who woulda thunk it.... FWIW, I'm running Win 7 beta in VMWare on my Mac and I find it not bad. Nothing that makes me won't to quit using a Mac, but definitely nicer to use than XP.
gorath
on Jan 28, 2009
Doom3 a disaster? riiiiight.
shark47
on Jan 28, 2009
Too much fodder for robertsjoe. I'm not staying around to see that today!
Waethorn
on Jan 28, 2009
"ID Software is a has-been." For that matter, so is Valve. They continue to grow based on very little of their own content. They haven't released anything good since Half-Life Episode 2, which took an extremely long time to make, and yet consists of about 5 hours of gameplay. Ditto for the first, and yet there is no Episode 3 on tap, nor is there any news of one. Episodic gaming may look good on paper, but developers killed it in practise. Half-Life 2 was good, but there are more productive developers out there. Note: I played Half-Life 2 almost all the way through a few additional times, but found it fairly stark and boring at times. A couple times I wanted to play through, I just couldn't find myself getting more than half way through. Not until I played a mod, did I find that it had more substance in another round, with more enemies, friendlies, and just more action overall. That mod is called, not surprisingly: Half-Life 2: Substance. I wouldn't go back to playing the original again, since there is a lot of boring, non-action "travelling time" in the original by comparison. BTW: Doom 3 was an extremely pirated game at the time, much like Crysis was, and reviews were nothing special. It was going to be a blockbuster game but most reviewers said the gameplay is boring and repetitive. The only nice thing was the graphics, so it ultimately turned into an interactive tech demo and nothing more. The story is basically the same story as Doom 1 (I actually read the prelogue in the Doom 1 manual long ago) but on Mars instead.
planetarian
on Jan 28, 2009
Wae: I have to ask, have you heard of a little gem called Portal? or, speaking more recently, Left 4 Dead? Team Fortress 2? All of these were/are huge hits from Valve, and with good reason.
planetarian
on Jan 28, 2009
Wae: Speaking of D3, have you ever checked out Doom 3 Classic? It's a nifty little mod that basically ports all the levels and such from Doom 1 into Doom 3; pretty nostalgic.
Waethorn
on Jan 28, 2009
"have you heard of a little gem called Portal? or, speaking more recently, Left 4 Dead?" Portal was mostly an after-thought for Valve, but they used it as a bonus to keep people happy after the disappointing Half-Life 2 Episode 2, and yet people liked Portal better. That's marketing that backfired in their favour. Left 4 Dead is primarily an Xbox title with no story, and designed for multiplayer. Gamespot's review is a fairly average 8.5. It's the same score as Doom 3, BTW. Not a huge hit by Gamespot's measure. Likewise, but not coincidentally, TF2 had the same score. I haven't checked out Doom 3 Classic. I'd much rather play Black Mesa: Source though. Doom (any of them) has no substance either. Now, Prey, on the other hand, was fairly solid, although also very short. The action was good, characters actually had, well, character....Getting a game that offers less than 15 hours of play doesn't appeal to me though.
JamesRayG
on Jan 28, 2009
How can MS OS sales be down so much? Before Vista shipped, MS stated that they would sell 200 million copies in the first 24 months. Right now, 24 months after Vista's release, there are 300 million Vista users, according to wikipedia which got it's stats from web OS tracking companies. Whatever it is, it isn't Vista that isn't selling.
robertsjoe
on Jan 28, 2009
No, you can't blame Microsoft's financial woes on Vista. You can blame the perception (and correct one at that) that Vista is a dodgy operating system; of being nothing great; simply mediocre. That you can blame on Vista. Hence Microsoft dropping the Vista name like a tonne of bricks. As for Windows 7 being a great operating system -- not so. It's just that you're all coming off something as bad as Vista, that any improvement, even minor, seems like a great one. It's not. It's same old boring Windows.
Waethorn
on Jan 28, 2009
"You can blame the perception (and correct one at that) that Leopard is a dodgy operating system; of being nothing great; simply mediocre. That you can blame on Leopard. Hence Apple adding the Snow name like a can of gravy on a pile of manure. As for Snow Leopard being a great operating system -- not so. It's just that you're all coming off something as bad as Leopard, that any improvement, even minor, seems like a great one. It's not. It's same old boring OS X." There. That's better.
Waethorn
on Jan 28, 2009
Time for me to hit the road. Gotta get home and get out the snow blower and tackle another 15cm of snow on the driveway. No self-respecting Canadian shovels snow anymore. That's not laziness - just being efficient. ;)
robertsjoe
on Jan 28, 2009
@waethorn: Wow, you're a genius. (BTW, since I know you don't know what sarcasm is, you may want to look it up before you reply).
Lindy
on Jan 28, 2009
"Desktops sales are sliding following the trend of the PC industry. Thats what Paul and Bill Snyder were talking about Mac sales were off." @sub...brother if that statement right there dont SCREAM fanboy nothing else will. Mac sales for shareholders dont distinguish desktop or notebook they only see either positive or negative. The latest reports were positive by 9% or more. It does not take a genius to understand that. Desktops have been declining for years now. The only thing that keeps them afloat these days are large purchases by corporations. Everyone knows notebooks now outsell desktops. Apple is a consumer mostly company so it stands to reason they would sell way more notebooks. Dell and HP, they sell millions of cheap worker bee, desktops machines to corporations. Many of which get re-imaged with XP upon arrival:)
Master3
on Jan 28, 2009
EVERYONE'S SALES ARE SLIDING! Take off the damn fanboy caps and get into reality! Who cares which logo you like better, serious shite is going down and it is getting worse. Today alone IBM announced cuts, and Starbucks is announcing major closings. But oooooh lets have a f%#$# flame war over who's OS is cooler. The fact that some dodgy tech writer is taking this global crisis and using it as an opportunity to attack an OS is F'ed up. The fact that these squabbles keep going despite is even more F'ed up!
subzerohitman721
on Jan 28, 2009
@Lindy, So me pointing out that Mac desktop sales are down along with every other PC manufactuer on the planet is screaming I'm a fanboy? Including all Windows based machines and Linux/Unix based machines too? You have no idea what a fanboy is. I think you are so biased to Mac's, you'll say anything to make that company look good. Yet I'm equally as critical of Microsoft as I am of Apple, Canonical, Red Hat, and any other software or hardware manufactuer. It is very relevent to scrutinize sales down to desktops, notebooks, netbooks, etc. Master3 has a great point. The flame wars do have to stop. There is more important things to be worried about. My reasons for being critical of Apple should be clear as glass. The latest hijacked software with trojans should be the most obvious reason. Instead of promoting use of anti-virus/anti-malware and excercising good computer maintenance skills, Apple says don't use antivirus. Its cool. You'll be fine. Well, the malware/trojan gates are now open. We've seen several cases in less than 6 months of Leopard being compromised by trojans. Its time to step up the security game on Leopard AND ON WINDOWS. Same goes for Linux/Unix as well. No operating system is bulletproof.
rjsnet
on Jan 29, 2009
I'm not sure who Paul is referring to when he talks about "people" responding differently to Vista, Mojave, Windows 7, etc but I find his tone quite irritating. As an IT professional who has thoroughly evaluated Vista for my organisation, and rejected it for use on our desktops, I wasn’t in the slightest bit fooled by the PR joke that was ”Mojave” and I still reserve judgement on Windows 7. I truly hope that Microsoft don’t share his opinion, otherwise Windows 7 might be Vista 1.1 after all.

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