The Mojave Experiment continues...

Woohoo, now in Silverlight! Just like the Olympics and the DNC convention, http://gallery1.demconvention.com.

NBC Viewers Not So Into Silverlight <> http://blog.wired.com/business/2008/08/nbc-viewers-not.html

I'm watching the Mojave site that's non-silverlight. Looks fine. MS is buying its way into the market --> It's not winning on any merits of its own. >>Microsoft has been jealous of Adobe’s Flash, a multimedia technology that Microsoft so desperately coveted that it tried to buy its then-owner, Macromedia, without much success. Instead, Adobe bought Macromedia in 2005 for $3.4 billion. Flash’s growing popularity as a core technology for online video, and Adobe’s efforts to extend it to the web applications market, hasn’t gone unnoticed by Microsoft. The barons of Redmond countered with Silverlight technology last year. They have upped the stakes by buying their way into the market — a time-tested strategy for the software giant. First it signed up MLB to get some mainstream usage. Then came NBC’s Olympics coverage online that led to a boost in the number of people using Silverlight to watch video. Today, the company announced that it’s going to invest in American Fork, Utah-based Move Networks, adding an undisclosed amount of funding to the startup’s $46 million Series C round. It will be money well spent: Move’s customers include large TV companies such as FOX, CBS and ABC. They use Move’s technology to deliver higher-quality video to web watchers. << http://gigaom.com/2008/08/25/microsoft-vs-adobe-the-rivalry-heats-up/

Lindy --> http://news.cnet.com/8301-13505_3-10020587-16.html Frankly, I think the idea is a non-starter.

Post already trolled/spamed by Ocean. Paul, its seriously time to pull the plug on this guy. His only mission is to leech off your site to create a sub blog and to throw threads completely off topic.

"Since Microsoft cast this marketing push as an "Experiment" -- i.e., science -- I would like to hereby publicly challenge Microsoft to answer the following questions ..." Ummm, a scientific experiment involves "science".

@Paul Let me get this straight. People are supposed to ignore the tens of professional reviews calling Vista a failure and a fumbled release, but BELIEVE (hook line and sinker) a few highly trained Microsoft reps giving helpless civilians a 10 minute face-to-face infomercial? C'mon! How obvious can you be! Walt and the rest were wrong, but this low-level Rico Suave working for Microsoft has somehow gotten to the truth. AMAZING!

"Of course, this still does nothing to address the actual real problems that users have had or counter what all of these people have heard from users in the real world. The real experiment would have been to give these people a "mojave" laptop for a month to take home." Or a year. Or even two years. Who defines what a real experiment is? The thing people don't realize is that this is a marketing experiment, not a scientific study that will be published in a journal. Most people got the premise of the whole 'experiment' wrong. This wasn't to prove to people that they were having no problems. This was to prove that people who hadn't used Vista ever and relied on the opinions of Walt and co. would actually like Vista when they saw it. There's a huge difference. I agree that placing the ads on tech sites is not the correct approach. "Or hell, let them use it for at least an hour." That they probably should have done. Did the people only see demos or did they actually use the computers, while the marketing guys were guiding them?

"Most people got the premise of the whole 'experiment' wrong. This wasn't to prove to people that they were having no problems. This was to prove that people who hadn't used Vista ever and relied on the opinions of Walt and co. would actually like Vista when they saw it. There's a huge difference." I agree, and it is exactly what I was conveying as well. Fivepoint, I assume you've tried what you have said here? Actually installed Vista, or even used it for any period of time?

I agree with Dipsh. This is a demo for average Joe, not you uber-geeks. You cannot take up a lot of time of these people, unless you pay them, so you can only show the ten minutes free of financial imcentives. It is a demo of Vista feature and ease of use, and that's honestly what they claim to show. Sales effectiveness is unknown, but playing this at retail stores may help. although consumers probably already have their mind made up between choosing a Mac or PC before they get to the store probably due to price considerations and prior experience [an XP user is most likely going to buy a new Vista PC], so it's Vista Home no matter what any way, and the 'Experiment' viewing is not helpful. Let's face it, they can't get XP at these retail stores, and many don't sell Macs either.

Important question from the top: >>• When people were initially asked their opinion of Vista, was it clear yet that Microsoft was doing the focus groups? How about when asked the second time? (I've personally developed and conducted many focus groups, and once you tell who is sponsoring it, everybody gets very complimentary about that company's products.) << www.internetnews.com/.../Whats+Wrong+With+Microsofts+Mojave+Experiment.htm

>>Windows isn’t going anywhere, the landscape won’t be changing anytime soon, and the corporate world will still buy it 500 copies at a time. In other words, it doesn’t matter what you (or tech reviewers) think of Windows Vista; sooner or later, it’s what most people will have on their PCs. In that light, it’s fortunate that Vista is better looking, better designed and better insulated against the annoyances of the Internet. At the very least, it’s well equipped to pull the world’s PCs along for the next five years — or whenever the next version of Windows drops down the chimney.<< The end of the Pogue review. How can anyone call that negative???

Ocean, did you post that this was a focus group? People typically get paid for that activity, but does not mean that's it's not a legit response, but my prior post stated the assumption of unpaid volunteers.

From the blog linked from Paul's post, I think this describes the motivation and why even a 5-10 minute demo is worth something: "At the same time, we recognize that noise in the market created by a vocal minority can discourage regular people from trying the product for themselves. We're confident these people would find a lot to like about Windows Vista if they spent even 5-10 minutes taking a closer look. We wanted to confirm that hypothesis and see what happens when people get a second chance to make a first impression." That's all this is. Also of note, this kind of thing is done all the time. I've been to many car events where they have the competition in a battle. You get what amounts to just a couple of minutes to take the car around a small course. Of course this isolated test does not a car evaluation make, but it allows people that were naysayers a second look at your product compared in a favorable environment. Look for information about the Taste of Lexus event. Many of these people are not necessarily fans of your brand but are coming for the food and freebies. Any kind of positive impression you can leave on them, no matter how scant or even short lived is the idea of these events and something like the Mojave Experiment.

>>noise in the market created by a vocal minority can discourage regular people from trying the product for themselves<< This is a strawman. There is no vocal minority thats unfairly criticizing Vista. It's been critiqued on its merits. >>no question Microsoft is trying to buy their success online in general<< Yep.

"But no question Microsoft is trying to buy their success online in general. " That's a pretty silly statement to make, frankly. They could've released this cool technology that no one used and therefore, no one deveoped for or they could've got companies on board. I don't think MS did anything wrong and if it's a better technology, I don't think users should complain.

"When you go to an Apple store, there's no false pretense of careful objectivity and methodology in the manner that the Mojave experiment implies. There's not false pretense when you're at an Apple store with Apple salesman... and they actually let you tinker with the machines for hours. So... what exactly IS wrong with that? You're right. Nothing. " So, again you are making the claim that Microsoft "lied" to these people. What is your proof? Not some implied notion that "M$ is evil" that forms the basis of way too many complaints against Microsoft. "The demos given in the M.E. are no better than marketing presentations and the reactions of the participants are polluted by many of the issues already raised." "#1. People in a focus group will tend to praise a product if they know they're speaking with people from the company." Attack the participants. They aren't being truthful because they didnt say it sucked. "#2. The very idea of getting some special sneak peak at a new thing that nobody has ever seen, compounded with #1 makes for even more exaggerated positive feedback." Attack the participants. They aren't being truthful because they didnt say it sucked. "#3. Vista's issues are entirely related to how well it functions in the real world, not whether the intention of features is good or not. This "experiment" completely avoids the real issues." So since no OS is perfect, especially considering all the issues found in OSX, if a person has an OS for however long you need them to have it, they will always find something they don't like. But this is what you are relying on. Not so much they find something they may not like, is that you hope they find one of those grossly exaggerated things in Vista that just will make them see THE TRUTH!!! That vista is such a horrible POS that they will walk over burning glass to get to the Mac Store! "Good science in an experiment of this kind would have really worked to eliminate these biases. I'm not saying they had to. I'm not saying this is "wrong" or "evil". It may even be effective in getting the most ignorant people with an anti-vista bias to take a second look. " Which is what POd 99.9% of the people that hated this whole thing. Ignorance and FUD is WHAT THEY ARE COUNTING ON. Take that away and then what do they have? "But if you have even half a brain, this feel like a cheap marketing ploy. And that's not good. It's a hook to get people to be a voyeur to other people watching the same marketing demos that you apparently didn't see or weren't impressed with if you saw them. " The results did not mirror what you want, and you fear that it will resonate. "Even worse though, is that the very construct of it actually reinforces the common perception that Vista sucks. If you're smart enough to dismiss the blatant marketing.... the only valuable focus group take-away from The Mojave Experiment is this: "Most people really do seem to think that Vista sucks and being told it sucks by the tech people they trust in their lives."" This is rich. Now we need to blindly "trust" the tech people in their lives. Not to actually deiced for themselves, or that those tech people may be wrong. Or maybe to trust in your own judgment. Noooooooo. You may not choose "right". "Again, it could be that average person ignored all these problems with the campaign and just took away "hmmm... maybe I should take another look". If so, great. But the biggest question I have for Microsoft is why open up the dialog with this? Why acknowledge that people think there's problems and then not address them honestly, instead using some cheap gimmick?" Wait, so the 24/7 FUD campaign, that was addressed in a previous post on this blog, should not have been confronted? If MS said nothing, how much you want to bet that the spin would be: "See, MS knows what we say is true. They wont even refute it!". "And why, if Vista is so successful (how could it not be? It's the only successor in a monopoly) why open yourself up to reinforcing the bad misconceptions? " By showing people how silly they are? Dont put out the fire, you might reinforce the fire! "Worst of all, why make the reasonably intelligent and intuitive people (I hope that's most of us) feel like you're using cheap gags to get your message to the dumbest among us? That's not great for the brand and doesn't show confidence in your product." Translation: The people that thought Vista was bad are now " the dumbest among us"? They were useful when we needed to convince people Vista was horrible. Now that MS wants to show them otherwise, It is perfectly acceptable to throw them under the bus and claim that their efforts to present an alternative view is a "cheap gag". How elitist of you.

@shark47 They are hoping no one uses it because it was made by MS. Not that Silverlight is bad (it isnt), it's just that it didn't come for a company they "approve" of. So their attack on it, for lack of anything else, is that MS is "buying" their way in.

My beef is that Silverlight is a unnecessary and redundant piece of technology that requires MORE INSTALLED software to work. and its only purpose is to make things more complex (not easier) for endusers by fracturing the video streaming market. I have flash. It works. MS uses it. I have Quicktime and WiMP and VLC on the PC. They work. If a site doesn't want to go with one of those, they don't want my business. No more.

"My beef is that Silverlight is a unnecessary and redundant piece of technology that requires MORE INSTALLED software to work. and its only purpose is to make things more complex (not easier) for endusers by fracturing the video streaming market. I have flash. It works. MS uses it. I have Quicktime and WiMP and VLC on the PC. They work. If a site doesn't want to go with one of those, they don't want my business. No more. " Geeze. Well ok, Ocean! That makes total sense...

Mike, Sorry, this attempt to invert the logic fails. "This is NOT limited to just Windows. The same holds true for a lot of products with established upgrade and bundling. Look at the following and you'll see it's equally true: -------------------- Agreed. Though Leopard doesn't suck. It's the best OS X release to date I think. Then again, I haven't used it for a long stretch... so maybe it's a death by a 1000 cuts. But isn't johnpapola's whole thing on this site about how Leopard is doing AWESOME! Of course, given that every Mac now ships with Leopard... how could it not do well? I don't even know how you benchmark the success of an OS X release. Certainly not market penetration, since that's inevitable." This attempt to claim a symmetric situation fails. The difference, and it is absolutely crucial, is that 35% of Leopard installs are NOT being downgraded to Tiger.

"The difference, and it is absolutely crucial, is that 35% of Leopard installs are NOT being downgraded to Tiger." Are you sure 35% of all Vista installs are being downgraded to XP? Here's a hint - you're wrong. It's about 35% of enterprise installs based on a link that lotsa had posted earlier. This is a familiar story with enterprises and has nothing to do with Vista. They take their time to upgrade to the next version of Windows. Heck, we barely upgraded from IE6 to IE7. BTW, there are signs that Vista's enterprise adoption is going up.

@Sharky, "That's a pretty silly statement to make, frankly." It's true. They've been doing ad deals with sites like digg where they are literally paying the site to use the service. Same thing with that Live search payback deal. It's fine. I have no problem with it really. And I think silverlight rocks. They may win this because they are coming from a programing angle from the get-go instead of retrofitting an animation engine with programming. But you can't deny that, much like Xbox, Microsoft is subsidizing their entrance into the web with their Windows and Office monopoly money. Just a statement, not a criticism. "You're not the first person to accuse MS of using paid actors." I'm not accusing anyone of anything. I just thought it was a funny likeness. That's all. @Master, Wow. Why is it that platform warriors love to say something or someone lied or is a liar. There's a reason why real journalists are very VERY reluctant to use those terms... as am I in general. This is about lying or bad ethics. It's about messaging and implications. The Mojave Experiment IS manipulative. It's using the conceptual hook of a focus group without all of the controls of a real focus group. And focus groups suck anyway. "Attack the participants. They aren't being truthful because they didnt say it sucked." What are you talking about? Didn't you notice that I've said repeatedly that I agree that Vista is good and that it gets a bad wrap. I'm not attacking anyone. I'm pointing about an element that causes bias. I just shot a weekend-long focus group thing for Spike and they were VERY careful not to let the guys know who the study was for. It biases people's reactions. Human beings generally aim to please and don't feel comfortable with criticism and confrontation (in person). This mostly a good thing. But it affects the results. How you can twist this into me "attacking" the participants is beyond my comprehension. "The results did not mirror what you want, and you fear that it will resonate." Man, you are out to lunch. Nothing discussed in the world of technology causes me "fear". I'm just weighing in on this because I work in promotions and have something to say about this from a brand standpoint. "This is rich. Now we need to blindly  "trust" the tech people in their lives. Not to actually deiced for themselves, or that those tech people may be wrong. Or maybe to trust in your own judgment." What is wrong with you, man. All I'm saying is that building a campaign that starts off with a list of horrible gripes may actually re-inforce those misconceptions. Jesus. Are you honestly saying that people should trust a 10 minute presentation by hired PR guns MORE than the tech people in your life who you turn to for advice? I'm that guy for many people. I tell them that Vista is better than XP (though I do usually say to get a mac if I think it will serve their uses). Why would you "trust" a marketing demo on it's face? Again, the experiment would have more merit if they gave people the laptops for a week and had them come back and report on their experience. Then I'd say they had enough time to develop a solid judgement for themselves. Sitting through a marketing video is not enough information to come to an educated judgement of a complex product. "Wait, so the 24/7 FUD campaign, that was addressed in a previous post on this blog, should not have been confronted?" Sure, but confront it with something that isn't a stupid gimmick wrapping a bunch of demos. Do a series of testimonials from people using Vista in the real world and enjoying it. "By showing people how silly they are?" Exactly. Now you get it. This campaign is built on showing people that they are silly. This is not a good approach to your customers. In other venues, Microsoft has acknowledged and apologized for some of Vista's early issues. That's a great, honest way to handle things. This campaign of proving that people are morons isn't. How elitist of you to think it should be. If a campaign requires ignorance to be effective, it's not a good campaign. Master, you're just so blinded by your own biases that you can't judge people as individuals. Your approach to my post here is frankly off the wall. It's a totally unhinged attack that isn't warranted by my moderate discussion of the campaign. I'm a mac fan, therefore you project all the worst fanboy beliefs and intentions on me even when I state the opposite. Not cool. I'm a reasonable guy with a generally favorable opinion of Vista. You, on the other hand, appear to be more interested in going on the attack for no good reason. Put simply, you are acting like a bigot.

"You have to think like one of them. Just slow your brain down." Seriously, are you 13 years old?

""You have to think like one of them. Just slow your brain down." Seriously, are you 13 years old?" No but most extreme Apple fanatics have the mental abilities, and maturity levels, of one.