Paul Thurrott's SuperSite for Windows
Home > Type > News > When will Windows 7 ship? My prediction: April 2009

When will Windows 7 ship? My prediction: April 2009

Dec. 5, 2008 Paul Thurrott | Paul Thurrott's Supersite for Windows

I’ll be publishing this in Short Takes later this morning, but I thought it would be of interest here in the blog as well:

There's been a lot of speculation about when Microsoft would ship Windows 7, its eagerly awaited follow-up to Windows Vista. So far, I've suggested that the company would ship Windows 7 far earlier than most people thought. But now I'm ready to make a number of more specific predictions myself, and add to the speculation.

It's pretty widely known that Microsoft will ship a beta release (and a public one at that) of Windows 7 in January. This beta will be the only beta and it will be followed by a single release candidate build, and then the final version, all in quick succession. I expect Windows 7 to be finalized by April 2009 at the latest, and to be completed simultaneously with Windows Vista/Windows Server 2008 Service Pack 2 (SP2), which is also due in April. (Windows 7 and SP2 share more code than people realize as well, by the way.) Windows 7 will be made broadly available to consumers and business customers no later than June 2009.

And those, folks, are my predictions for the release of Windows 7.

One other factoid: My understanding is that Vista SP2 and Windows 7 will be the baseline for both application and device compatibility going forward, and that’s a big part of the code sharing between these two releases. The idea is that if it works in Vista (with SP2) it will absolutely work in Windows 7 as well.

Discuss this Article 116

tayme
on Dec 5, 2008
"My understanding is that Vista SP2 and Windows 7 will be the baseline for both application and device compatibility going forward, and that’s a big part of the code sharing between these two releases. The idea is that if it works in Vista (with SP2) it will absolutely work in Windows 7 as well." Oh, Paul...Even though what you stated is factual, you left it wide open for the anti-MS crowd to continue the W7 is Vista 2 campaign. Of course, since most of them are blinded by the light shining from Cupertino, they will fail to mention that Leopard is Tiger 2, which is Panther 2, which is Jaguar 2, which is Puma 2, which is Cheetah 2, which is BSD (Some huge number unknown to me). Me, on the other hand...I will continue to use and enjoy both Windows and OS X...along with various Linux distros and Unix variants. --tayme
johnbaxter
on Dec 5, 2008
Paul, fascinating stuff. I trust you're planning to help the city of Dedham pay its unbudgeted arrow cleanup costs. MikeGalos, so Mr. S. really does walk on water (if this is near right). I hope that's only figurative this winter.
Delmont
on Dec 5, 2008
I am excited! Windows 7 with i7 CPU!!! Will be time to replace my 4 year old Dell (at that time)
Dipsh t Admin
on Dec 5, 2008
Tayme, just like Snow Leopard is Leopard 2, or in other terms, Leopard done right! ;) Still, I feel this is a little early, but it does show that Windows 7 is quite solid out of the gate.
Delmont
on Dec 5, 2008
Also, does this also give us the date of IE8?
Waethorn
on Dec 5, 2008
Official word: it'll ship on the first of April. "Snow Leopard is Leopard 2, or in other terms, Leopard done right" How would you know? Are you in the Apple beta program? (Apple's lawyers would like to know - since you'd be under an NDA if you were) Does Windows 7 have MinWin in it? If so, what does that mean for Windows Vista SP2, if there is so much code-sharing happening?
rseiler
on Dec 5, 2008
So in other words, the supposed "Beta 1" is really, I don't know, RC1 or 2. Gotta love labels.
Avro
on Dec 5, 2008
Even I'm getting excited about Windows 7! :-) And Snow Leopard too (not 2). :-)
Waethorn
on Dec 5, 2008
BTW, gorath: Most video encoding software DOES use multiple threads, at least now it does. ....oh, and losta: If you had any sense at all, you'd withdraw your comment about McLobster. You don't have to do any work to get at the meat, it's cheap, and McDonalds is the biggest local buyer of Lobster in the East Coast, so they support the local economy quite well. @mike: Core i7's aren't shipping in multiple CPU configurations yet - just the 3 CPU SKU's and the X58 chipset. Next year, the product lineup will expand. We'll see it go mainstream around the time of the Windows 7 launch. Now, the Xeon 7400 series - that's worth mentioning too: 6-core performance now, in multiple CPU configurations, each with 16MB of L3 cache. The 7300 chipset supports up to 4 processors, giving you the ability to run 24 threads simultaneously at full performance.
Ocean
on Dec 5, 2008
>>Nothing will change with Windows 7 on the inside. What will change is the way Windows users interact with their PCs. And believe me, that’s a good thing. Apple is not gaining market share just due to hype. If that’s going to disappoint a few users, then so be it.<< A response to Paul and Mary Jo http://technologizer.com/2008/12/04/windows-stands-to-benefit-from-mac-l...
mikegalos@msn.com
on Dec 5, 2008
johnbaxter I don't know about him walking on water but he's really good at getting projects out the door.
mikegalos@msn.com
on Dec 5, 2008
Waethorn "Are you in the Apple beta program?" Apple has a beta program? Since when?
mikegalos@msn.com
on Dec 5, 2008
Waethorn "Core i7's aren't shipping in multiple CPU configurations yet " I know but I really didn't want to get into that level of detail to explain why multi-threaded systems are good.
Ocean
on Dec 5, 2008
Pogue: >>For years, tech critics like me have occasionally endured abuse from the Cult of Mac. If you write anything that even hints at a less-than-perfect Apple effort (like my reviews of, for example, the original Apple TV, iMovie '08 or MobileMe), the backlash is swift, vitriolic and heated. We're talking insults, vulgarities and even threats. I've always thought that that vocal sub-population of Mac fans make up the world's most watchful, most hostile grass-roots lobbying arm. But now I see that I was wrong. There's an even nastier one: the BlackBerry nuts.<< http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/04/technology/personaltech/04pogue-email....
Ocean
on Dec 5, 2008
>>The BlackBerry Storm, in my opinion, is a wonderful illustration of how Apple’s innovation and market appeal can force a smart company like RIM to invest millions of dollars in a product that’s way outside its core competency. You don’t see Apple trying to create a full-on enterprise/e-mail device, do you? You don’t, and you won’t.<< http://gracefulflavor.net/2008/12/04/apple-rim/
RaaJ
on Dec 5, 2008
Ocean: That article you linked to is the biggest waste of cyberspace I've seen today. 'OS X is as powerful or simple as you want." What does that even mean to the reader other than being the raving comment of a Mac fanatic? I use Leopard and Vista every day, and I don't see what is so much more powerful and easy to do in OS X than it is in Vista. Stop posting inane iBoy drivel.
Delmont
on Dec 5, 2008
Who and what is Ocean responding to and/or posting about? I don't see any connection to his gibberish and to the topic of this blog posting. Am I missing something?
lotsamystuff
on Dec 5, 2008
"If you had any sense at all, you'd withdraw your comment about McLobster." Bite me. First of all, this thread has nothing to do with McLobster. Second, if your "defense" of this crap product is that McDonald's buys a lot of lobster, then you're even more of a moron than I thought. The ocean is being fished dry in order to provide mass-market swill like the "McLobster"? Unbelievable. Sorry for the OT post, everyone.
Ocean
on Dec 5, 2008
>>What does that even mean to the reader other than being the raving comment of a Mac fanatic?<< I have a question: Is everyone (with the exception of Paul) who likes or enjoys a Macintosh a fanatic or a raving lunatic? I thought Harry Mccrakens description was pretty even handed (that is, the opposite of being over the top). He said: >>Up until about three years ago, I had vowed never to buy a Mac, and was using just about every new bell and whistle that Redmond put out. However when I first started working at BetaNews full time in 2005, things changed. My boss there, also a Mac convert, sent me a PowerBook G4 for work which opened my eyes. While yes, those first few weeks were a mess, soon after I realized that working on a Mac was a whole lot easier than Windows. -- Performing tasks typically are one click endeavors, rather than multi-click mazes. I always like to say that the one-button mouse was the best thing to happen to Macs: it forced developers to carefully think out their user interfaces.<< Whats fanatical about that?
mikegalos@msn.com
on Dec 5, 2008
my only comment on McLobster is: Lobster rolls are a fine, time honored tradition in New England and it's nice to see a national chain respecting the regional cuisine. Is McLobster the best lobster roll out there? No. Is it the worst lobster roll out there? No.
Ocean
on Dec 5, 2008
>>For example, if you're reading an email using the iPhone Mail application and click on a link to a Web page, the Safari Web browser appears and navigates to that page. Once you're done with that and want to get back to your email you ... hm. What? There's no "Back" button on the device ***because Jobs hates buttons***.<< Paul, what is your source for this?
DarkSages
on Dec 5, 2008
@Waethorn ""Snow Leopard is Leopard 2, or in other terms, Leopard done right" How would you know? Are you in the Apple beta program? (Apple's lawyers would like to know - since you'd be under an NDA if you were)" Steve jobs said so himself that snow leopard was a fix for leopard. Leopard was horrible at release and it stills has issues to this day with large wireless setups. I have to type the SSID and key every time i move from one building to the next tiger works fine.
Ocean
on Dec 5, 2008
>>The choice of Qi Lu to run Microsoft’s online services division offers the clearest picture yet about Steve Ballmer’s vision for the company’s online effort. Its colors are blue, red, yellow and green and it is spelled G-O-O-G-L-E. -- Mr. Lu was the top search engineer at Yahoo and is credited with helping build a very credible search engine. But he hasn’t run a business or been a product manager. Why would Mr. Ballmer look at this scene and choose an engineer as the leader? It’s not like Microsoft doesn’t have engineering talent. Here’s one explanation: Mr. Ballmer sees Microsoft’s No. 1 enemy as Google. Google’s No. 1 product is a search engine. So to beat Google at its own game, he may figure he needs the person who can make the best search engine possible. By that standard, Mr. Lu would be on anyone’s short list.<< http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/04/microsofts-google-envy-part-396/
shark47
on Dec 5, 2008
"Sorry for the OT post, everyone." You don't need to apologize. Ocean made has made sure that there's nothing OT as far as this thread is concerned.
mikegalos@msn.com
on Dec 5, 2008
Darksages "Snow Leopard is Leopard 2, or in other terms, Leopard done right" We actually don't know this. We do know: "Snow Leopard is Leopard 2, or in other terms, Leopard done better" Whether they get it right or not is another question altogether.
Delmont
on Dec 5, 2008
Ocean: Would you please get lost! Enough of your crap that does not pertain. You re not funny either!
Sevenmack
on Dec 5, 2008
McLobster: Decent. But then, lobster, in general, isn't my cup of tea. I prefer shrimp and salmon myself. Preferably with a porterhouse. Medium well done. Windows 7: Ready to try it out. I've got a spare Acer Aspire (just installed a new LCD on it and souped up with three gigs of memory and 160-gig hard drive) that I'm playing around with as a sort of media center. Love to put Win 7 on that for a try. My mom's already got the beta and loves it; she wasn't too fond of Vista before SP1. Delmont: Do you really try to pay attention to Ocean? I wouldn't. Except when drunk. Stone drunk.
Waethorn
on Dec 5, 2008
"Apple has a beta program? Since when? Developer beta I suppose - what were they given at WWDC? "Is McLobster the best lobster roll out there? No. Is it the worst lobster roll out there? No." losta's just jealous, cuz the Canadian McLobster is so much better (as is the other Canadian menu, as well as the decor of the restaurants). The one in Maine is apparently not so good - having too much mayo, celery, and a pretty sad hotdog bun. Some reviews say that it's just "flecks" of lobster meat. The one in Canada has big chunks of meat on an Italian-style bakery roll. There isn't a lot of filler in it either - just mayo and lettuce. For less than the price of a lobster restaurant (which aren't cheap anymore on the East Coast), you can get your fill (read: pig out) at McDonald's and not have a messy shell to deal with. It's still the same meat. If McDonald's in the US is still the crap greaseburger restaurant with plastic moulded seats that it used to be, then you have my pity. Here, it's far different, and it's actually quite a respectable place to eat now.
gorath
on Dec 5, 2008
@ Wae. I know most video encoding uses multiple threads, but they still seem to mainly utilize one core more than the others. My guess is that video encoding is kinda "do this same math, over and over and over, on this long stream of frames" processing, so spreading to several cores doesn't offer much advantage. I mean, you can still get better performance out of a dedicated encoder card. Or maybe Spreading the work out too much makes it hard to keep sync accurately, as the data stream has to be synchronous. I honestly don't know.
Waethorn
on Dec 5, 2008
"Steve jobs said so himself that snow leopard was a fix for leopard." "Snow Leopard is Leopard 2, or in other terms, Leopard done better" Ok, people have to take both comments with a grain of salt. They said the same thing about Leopard being better than Tiger at launch too. "I have to type the SSID and key every time i move from one building to the next tiger works fine." I rest my case.
Waethorn
on Dec 5, 2008
"Steve jobs said so himself that snow leopard was a fix for leopard." "Snow Leopard is Leopard 2, or in other terms, Leopard done better" Ok, people have to take both comments with a grain of salt. They said the same thing about Leopard being better than Tiger at launch too. "I have to type the SSID and key every time i move from one building to the next tiger works fine." I rest my case.
Delmont
on Dec 5, 2008
Sevenmack: I agree! LOL Your mom is running the beta of Win7? WOW! Now that's impressive. I'm being serious. So figure next fall there will be a "Save Vista" campaign like there was for WinXP? :-)
Ocean
on Dec 5, 2008
How does McLobster pertain? As I've said many times...I post what I find interesting, the rest can comment or ignore. The responses don't really matter to me...I'll keep posting either way.
mikegalos@msn.com
on Dec 5, 2008
gorath "My guess is that video encoding is kinda "do this same math, over and over and over, on this long stream of frames" processing, so spreading to several cores doesn't offer much advantage." Exactly the opposite, it's this "do the same thing over and over" that makes it such a good candidate for multiple cores. In fact, prior to multi-core processors, Intel and the MMX multimedia extensions that allowed for just that sort of parallel work by having multiples of certain parts of the CPU specifically for this kind of repetitive work in media file work.
mikegalos@msn.com
on Dec 5, 2008
"So figure next fall there will be a "Save Vista" campaign like there was for WinXP? :-)" There will be if InfoWorld need to do another stunt to keep readers - after all, they've already given up on credibility.
mikegalos@msn.com
on Dec 5, 2008
Getting back on topic, it'll be interesting to see what the actual ship schedule turns out to be. My guess is that the actual gating factor will be Internet Explorer 8 since the decision to have it default to the "standards" compliant engine will require the most external dependancies before it's ready for non-techie users.
shark47
on Dec 5, 2008
"There will be if InfoWorld need to do another stunt to keep readers - after all, they've already given up on credibility." What do you mean? If that guy Randall hadn't written that article, Windows 7 would've been released in April itself, instead of being delayed and released in April. Of course, April is Paul's estimate, not the official date given by MS. I wonder how many people will say 7 is delayed if it isn't actually released in April.
Delmont
on Dec 5, 2008
Ocean: So do you also just walk up to people in the middle of a conversation and just butt in with a topic that is totally different? It's just plain rude. It's what my 5 year old nephew does actually come to think of it.
mikegalos@msn.com
on Dec 5, 2008
shark The real question is who at Infoworld will say they personally scared Microsoft into delaying it past April if it doesn't ship by then. I'd put in a smilie but the state of tech "journalism" these days is so pathetic that it makes it too likely that some bozo over there will do just that.
gorath
on Dec 5, 2008
I'd be surprised if it's as early as april to be honest. I'm guessing it'll be out for OEMs ready for crimbo 2009, so maybe october/november-ish? @ Mike: (I am clueless about the encoding process, so I'm not saying you're wrong, just that I don't understand). I can see how several threads would help with say, multi-channel audio, but for a single synchronous data stream like video, I just don't get it. And besides, most do only seem to use only one core, regardless of the amount of threads.
mikegalos@msn.com
on Dec 5, 2008
btw: It's worth noting (in case anyone from Infoworld is reading) that Paul didn't say Windows 7 would be available in April. He said it would be finalized in April and available in June.
mikegalos@msn.com
on Dec 5, 2008
gorath Re: multiple cores for video The thing about video is that it isn't a single data stream. It's a key frame and deltas. And you can have each processor core working on its own starting at each different key frame without even having to worry about coordination. Even if you have them work on the same frame at a time, they can each work on a different section and then do a clean-up pass on the edges of each section as the last step. This really lends itself well to massively multiprocessor systems like Windows HPC server clusters which is why you see big rendering farms in the studios. Even loosely coupled processors are great for video work.
mikegalos@msn.com
on Dec 5, 2008
gorath Re: ship dates Ideally, to get on the holiday train, you want your stuff ready for the OEMs in the early Fall. But, ideally, you're even better if you can get things ready for the Back to School sales in the late Summer which means getting final builds to the OEMs by early Summer at the latest.
tayme
on Dec 5, 2008
@mikegalos - Obviously, it will be Paul Thurrott that scares them into delaying the release of Windows 7 to April, instead of releasing it in April as they have not been officially stating for some time now. --tayme
mikegalos@msn.com
on Dec 5, 2008
tayme Nonsense. Infoworld wouldn't give anyone else the credit for delaying a date that doesn't exist. They reserve that right for themselves.
pthurrott
on Dec 5, 2008
BTW ... My prediction for Snow Leopard? August 2009. Yes, really.
mikegalos@msn.com
on Dec 5, 2008
Paul Interesting. Why? I'd have assumed a Spring launch along with i7 based iMac and Mac Pro systems.
gorath
on Dec 5, 2008
@mike, regarding the video multi-processing: I see, that does make sense. I knew that 3d-graphics (or visual effects) rendering can be done in such a way that each available processor calculates a "bucket" (a chunk of one image) but I hadn;t realised you could do this while encoding a video stream as well. I had noticed something interesting going on with one of our video guys' editing machines though. When rendering to a single file from the timeline, th eCPU was only about 30% utilised, but the hard disk was working at around 230Mb/s. Curious. I assumed it was the hard disk that was the rendering bottleneck, so I installed a 4-disk RAID0 array, and the video rendering process sped up dramatically, and the CPU was finally being used at between 90-100%.
tayme
on Dec 5, 2008
Here is an interesting take on the Snow Leopard release date - http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=511801 I find it telling that the first 2 things mentioned in the "Why" section are "To make money" and "serve the stockholders" instead of something like "To improve the end user functionality" or " To correct problems with previous versions". So, its the $129 Service Pack, right? --tayme
mikegalos@msn.com
on Dec 5, 2008
gorath Finding the real bottleneck is so often key to a speedup. I don't know how many times I've seen even really sophisticated professionals just make an assumption of what needs to be replaced without testing and end up spending money to replace a component that's practically idling while the real problem goes untouched.

Please or Register to post comments.

Related Articles

IT/Dev Connections

Las Vegas
September 30th - October 4th

Paul ThurottYou'll have the opportunity to experience:
• 120 Technical
Sessions
• Networking with Peers
• Expert Speakers


Come See Paul Thurrott & Mary Jo Foley in Person!

Register Now

Office 365 InfoCenter

Get the latest insight and info from Paul

Read Now!

What I Use
Apr. 18, 2013
Article

What I Use: On the Road 20

Every so often, I publish an updated version of my “What I Use” document, which details the technology products and services I actually use day-to-day. Since I’m currently on my third business trip in five weeks, this is perhaps an ideal time to discuss the technology products I rely on when I travel and a few related points....More
Mar. 6, 2013
Article

What I Use: March 2013 33

Lots of changes since November, including a new PC-based home server running Windows 8, several new smart phones, new PCs and tablets, new cloud backup, Office 365 Home Premium and a nice doubling of my Internet speeds courtesy of Verizon FIOS....More
WinSuperSite.com
Related Penton Sites
Copyright © 2013 Penton Media, Inc