When will Windows 7 ship? My prediction: April 2009

@mike: Multi-threaded video encoding is only as good as the optimizations for the shared cache between the cores. MPEG compression (and every other temporal compression scheme on the planet) requires shared information after all.

Waethorn, It depends on what you're doing and how you're doing it depending on how you break up the work flow. You can get reasonably good scaling on video work with a cluster farm if you split the work into discrete chunks (keyframe and delta frames)

"The BlackBerry Storm, in my opinion, is a wonderful illustration of how Apple’s innovation and market appeal can force a smart company like RIM to invest millions of dollars in a product that’s way outside its core competency. You don’t see Apple trying to create a full-on enterprise/e-mail device, do you?" This is what companies do. Look at when Motorolla came out with the Razer, everyone made a Razer look alike. And no Apple isn't crating a full-on enterprise/e-mail device because like push to talk with nextel others companies have tried and failed so Apple isn't even going to try. Apple like Sony gives people what they think they want instead of listening to them. They do well working this way which is fine, but they also alienate the people who want certain features or products that they don't yet or won't make. Like with Apple TV, it can't view TV. I know when it came out people complained that it didn't have a tuner and couldn't work like a DVR. Cut and paste in the Iphone still isn't implemented. People hate the Iphone virtual keyboard and say they would want one with a real keyboard. Thats just a few things...if Apple listened instead of just pretended they're psychic they could do even better. MS isn't always much better, they kind of have the same frame of mind at times. MS does listen to customers....after a while. Like with Vista, they didn't listen to the people while making Vista, but they are looking at what people didn't like with Vista and are trying to fix them in Windows 7. Same with the Zune, they didn't listen to what people wanted, but they tried to fix it in Zune 2. I think Windows 7 will ship August or September of 2009. I think they want to get it out sooner than later since Vista was delayed so long. I just hope that doesn't hurt Windows 7. Windows 7 has great promise and if its done well it could greatly help MS getting people to upgrade from XP to 7. If Windows 7 fails then it could open up a door for Mac. I think MS knows this and they're going to try their hardest to bring out a good product.

"Canadian McLobster is so much better (as is the other Canadian menu, as well as the decor of the restaurants)" Yeah, I'm really missing Poutain on my American McDonald's menu. The only thing I'm jealous of in Canada is Tim Horton's, and thankfully they're migrating south now, so the only reason to keep Canada around is so we can exploit its natural resources.

Jon Fingas No, I do understand that. I also understand that Apple is now hitting the holiday shopping season with products that are a generation older than their less expensive competitors that do use i7 and thus Apple products don't match up in the "checkbox" comparison that drives retail so often while not having done an update on anything but the laptop line in any significant way in a very, very long time (by industry standards of long time) Getting PR is good but only if you have competitive product to sell off that PR. What Apple has to offer company wide in 4CQ08 is not compellingly different than what they already sold in 4CQ07. That hurts them for the non-techie consumer for this holiday season. What hurts them with the techie consumer for this holiday season is the general perception (true or not) that there will be an iMac/MacPro generation change early next year. So, the people who track the industry won't buy this Fall because it'd be buying a product thats at end of life and who wants to be the last person paying retail for the old model? The people who don't track the industry won't buy this Fall because Apple's a generation behind and now they're having to compete with not their competitor's top machines but the bargain, close-out models. So, tell us, why would Apple, a normally very shrewd company when it comes to being competitive for key shopping cycles, get themselves into this situation?

@robertsjoe - Yup...school's out. Perfect timing. See my earlier post explaining that you would fail to mention the $129 Service Packs coming out of Cupertino. --tayme

@tayme: Windows 7 (Vista 2) is nothing more than some cosmetics (trying to fix up a mess that Microsoft has not been able to get right since Windows 1.0) and security and service packs rolled together.

@schoolboy robertsjoe - What about Snow Leopard? I believe that you described it well. --tayme

And, of course, I should say pre-pre-beta for Win 7, not beta (as in, nearly ready for release) since it isn't.

Mack, Company VP's, as they did with the iPod, will demand that their underlings make the iPhone work. Rim would have done better to make sure that they kept their base sooo happy that they didn't dare look elsewhere.

"so the only reason to keep Canada around is so we can exploit its natural resources" Apparently water and lumber mostly comes from Canada too... Maybe if we kept it too ourselves (**evil thoughts...**) if you think about it.. If Canada ever decided to keep its resources the US would greatly suffer... Water being the big one.. hey i just thought of a new war game >.>

@Ocean - I haven't seen any VP's at the company I work for or any of my cohorts at other companies *demand* that IT make an iPhone work. I have seen it asked about...but in most cases, once again, information security policies won't allow it. Most companies of any size have invested in RIM and MS and do not want to have an iPod in a phone connected to the end users PC's. You must not have any corporate experience. --tayme

Just did some checking...the company that I work for is, however, reviewing the Storm at this point. Still an absolute policy against iPhones connected to PC's or configured to work with our Exchange environment. --tayme

Paul, I strongly disagree with your assessment. With economic conditions as they are, the announcement of 1.9 million jobs losts and 10.3 million Americans unemployment, I think it would be suicide for Microsoft to launch Windows 7 in 2009. I am sticking with the belief that Windows 7 will launch in May 2010. Look at the conditions. Do you think businesses or consumers will have the money to make purchases of Windows 7? I sure as hell will not. Windows Vista is doing just fine. Its outselling Leopard 30 to 1. There is no reason in a bad economy to launch Windows Seven unless it is heavily discounted from the retail costs of Windows Vista. Going into 2009, we're going to have more people laid off and looking for jobs. The last thing they are going to do is upgrade their OS. I think people will stick with Vista or XP for the time being. Second, if Seven fails to be anything less than what Windows 95, 98, and XP were, MIcrosoft will have successfully open the door for Apple to take a stronger chunk of the desktop market. Forget 10 percent. Microsoft's failure to capture consumer confidence will have a devastating backlash. It will justify greater criticisms of Microsoft and give Steve Jobs the "I told you so" argument. If Microsoft was smart, they'd stick with the original roadmap. Beta test it through 3/4ths of 2009. RC the OS till the end of December and launch in late January 2010. If Microsoft is rushing Seven to a 2009 launch and it fails to be nothing less than stellar, I might have to consider looking at a Mac and Snow Leopard. As a consumer, I am saying if Windows Seven doesn't live up to its promise, I would vote with my wallet against Microsoft. Later.

"BTW ... My prediction for Snow Leopard? August 2009." Are these predictions like Baller's lame ones too? Where many years ago he said that MSFT would be as relevant in search as Google? He said this years ago, but said they would be as relevant in 6 months. Still waiting. The only way they'd be as relevant is if they outright bought Google.

What?! Bo blog posts about Apple blowing away Microsoft in the smartphone market? Walking over Windows Mobile.

@mikegalos@msn.com stated: As far as anybody has said, they are. I have no idea where you got the idea that the plan ever involved a 9 month long beta test followed by a release in 2010. Certainly not from Microsoft. Mike, According to Microsoft when Vienna/Seven was first confirmed that it would be available 3 years from the launch of Windows Vista. January 29, 2007 + 3 = 2010. I don't think my math is that wrong. Also, Mary Jo Foley with contacts deep within Microsoft had an article saying 2010. http://blogs.zdnet.com/microsoft/?p=592 Also, Mike weren't you a former Microsoft employee? Then what about this email on the Microsoft website from Microsoft Senior VP Bill Veghte, stating 3 years and 2010? http://www.microsoft.com/windows/letter.mspx Thats where I got the 2010 roadmap. Later.

subzero, the blog says, "approximately" 3 years. It could even mean 2 years and 10 months --> November 2009. :-) I think they said approximately 3 years and everyone assumed 2010. Microsoft refused to give a firm date. Mike is right on that one.

Shark47, Okay, I'll give you that based on the word "approximately." But everyone else with contacts in Microsoft have been saying 2010. However, I could see Microsoft waiting till late September 2009 for a Seven launch and make it make sense. However, even though I don't see Vista as a flop as much as our resident Windows haters, I do think Seven needs to recapture that Windows 95 moment. I think September makes sense, because it leaves enough time for 2 betas, 2 RC's, and RTM. Possibly an November release, but thats pushing things too close to the Holiday selling season and not enough time for marketing and promotion. However, if Seven ends up feeling rushed more so than Vista, then I think you have to give Apple another look. Though a lot of the complaints about OS-X 10.5 Leopard, are that some Mac users are privately saying it was rushed. Quite a predicament if you are a computer user. Just my two cents, take it or leave it.

"However, if Seven ends up feeling rushed more so than Vista, then I think you have to give Apple another look." I think a lot of people will. Microsoft needs to get 7 right. Although, I would still claim that Microsoft never gave a definite timeline for 7. If you remember, Paul and others lamented the lack of information coming out of Microsoft about it. There were also some rumors about 7 being released in 2009 and some MS executives, including Bill Gates have accidentally mentioned it.

Interesting discussion. If people are to give Apple another look because 7 does not impress, they will definitely have to lower the cost to the consumer. This will be especially true if the downward spiral of the economy continues. --tayme

Or a $400 Windows 7 lappy!!! --tayme

Actually, Windows Vista shipped in Fall 2006 to businesses and OEMs. "About 3 years after" that is somewhere between Summer 2009 and Early 2010.

OT: But the Songbird topic is closed. Songbird's CEO was quoted in the following article that's getting up on Digg's front page: http://hothardware.com/News/Apple-Blocking-iTunes-Competition-for-iPhone/

@ subzero: I agree 100%. The company I work for just gave a few people their walking papers due, in no small part, to the economy. And we're still mostly on XP boxes; there are a few who have Macs (more on that in a second). There was talk about getting us up to Vista come the new year... maybe. Win 7? Pffft... right. If MS was smart, they'd hold off on Win 7 until 2010 - 1) this would give them a chance to really add some polish to the OS and 2) see what the economic landscape looks like. Don't forget, there is also the consumer market who have purchased new PC's with Vista pre-installed - now all of a sudden there is Win 7 which is supposed to be, pretty much, an apology for Vista? Yup. Sure. Very little sales there as well; we all know most people use whatever OS is pre-installed on their computers. This goes for the everyperson who buys PCs AND Macs. And before all you Windows people jump on me, I'd say the same to Apple too. Out of all the folks in the office who have Macs, only three of us are on Leopard; and IT told us that it was on our own dime, and if the computers f**ked up, it was "Back to Tiger with you!". No Windows 7 and no Snow Leopard anytime soon.